MOSCOW, February 18. /TASS/. The achieved level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia (21%) will allow avoiding the "Turkish scenario" with excessive growth of inflation expectations and an unwinding inflation spiral, Grigory Zhirnov, a research intern at the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, wrote in his column for TASS.
"The achieved level of the rate will allow avoiding the "Turkish scenario" with excessive growth of inflation expectations and an unwinding inflation spiral. The key rate is already limiting the economy: unsecured consumer lending has not grown since October, family loans account for more than 80% of mortgages issued, and household funds in banks are steadily growing - by 26% over the past year," the expert noted.
According to him, one should not expect a quick and sharp rate cut, as in 2015 and 2022, given that the inflation target has not been achieved for five years in a row, the Bank of Russia will try to avoid premature easing of monetary policy as much as possible.
"For the first time, we are going through a cycle of tightening monetary policy due to processes in the real sector of the economy. In previous periods of significant rate increases (2014, 2022), business activity was weak, and the main reasons for tightening the monetary policy were financial risks and the weakening of the exchange rate. This is probably why high inflation is often associated with crises and "bad times" in Russia. Although in the current situation, everything is the opposite - the economy has run too far ahead," he stated.
On February 14, the Board of Director of the Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 21% per annum at its first meeting in 2025, as expected before.