MOSCOW, January 5. /TASS/. Experts questioned by TASS forecast the key rate cuts in Russia this year to the level of 9-13% in absence of new shocks.
The Bank of Russia initiated the cycle of key rate raising in July 2023. The key rate reached 16% in December 2023.
"The current key rate level in real terms is already at the toughest level over the decade. Considering this, we see the room for a gradual start of key rate lowering as early as from March," Renaissance Capital analysts said. "The year of 2024 will probably be the period of searching for a tradeoff between risks for inflation and economic activity in the Russian economy. We tend to a scenario envisaging that lending slowdown and price dynamics normalization will make it possible for the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate below 10% as early as in late 2024," they added.
The regulator may start slashing the rate as early as in the first half of the year, Olga Belenkaya from Finam says. "The key rate as of the end of 2024 can be within the 9-13% range. We believe that the Bank of Russia may start lowering the rate in the first half of 2-2024 in case of deceleration of current inflation rates and lending rates in absence of new shocks," she noted.
At the same time, certain experts are more skeptical. "The Central Bank of Russia was choosing between the keeping pause for the rate or its lifting by moderate 100 basis points at the last meeting in 2023," Alfa-Bank analysts noted. "Lack of an unambiguous indication that the peak in the rate lifting cycle has already been achieved may be viewed as readiness of the Central Bank of Russia to increase the rate further if needed," they added.
Neutralization of the monetary policy will hardly start earlier than the middle of this year, Raiffeisenbank analysts stated. "Proinflationary risks (possible social budget payments, high inflation expectations, and consumer optimism) remain the source of uncertainty. We see one more increase in February among risk scenarios," analysts added.