MOSCOW, November 25. /TASS/. Russia's moratorium on the deployment of intermediate and shorter-range missiles is effectively dead, Vasily Kashin, the Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics has told TASS, noting that certain US policies forced Russia’s hand.
He recalled that "the beginning of this year saw the deployment of the US ground-based medium-range Typhon missile system on the Danish island of Bornholm. Later, it was announced that missiles would be deployed on the territory of Germany starting in 2026."
"Similar developments took place in Asia - the deployment of the same system in the Philippines and Guam," Kashin noted. "In other words, the events that took place aligned with the Russian leadership’s conditions for the production and deployment of medium-range missiles."
"So one can say that in fact the moratorium is no longer in effect," the analyst emphasized. "The scale of the Russian deployment will depend on actions by the other side."
Kashin described strikes with US long-range weapons deep into Russian territory as a significant factor in this shift.
"Ukraine shares a border with Russia. Many of Russia's key cities can find themselves within the reach of these weapons. Russia would need medium-range missiles to create a similar threat to at least US bases in Europe, so this makes the observance of the moratorium under the current conditions utterly absurd," the specialist explained.
US ruined INF Treaty
According to Kashin, "the Americans have largely destroyed the treaty with their desire to contain China." But for Russia, he noted, "this development is rather useful."
"We need to launch unfettered production of a very wide range of medium-range missiles, and not only high-tech and powerful systems like the Oreshnik, but also much simpler, mass ones," he said. "We should manufacture them in the largest amount possible, as many as we can afford. This should be our priority."
Kashin explained that these weapons "make it possible to keep Europe and NATO infrastructure in Europe in the crosshairs."
"This type of armament can be deployed within half an hour under any circumstances," he pointed out. "This weapon provides some strategic advantages. This explains why all the countries that in modern parlance constitute the world majority and which have bad relations with the West, pin hopes on this weapon, on land-based medium-range missiles."
Kashin pointed out that the decision made by the Soviet Union back in the 80s to scrap medium-range missiles was extremely controversial, and, given the trend in the development of weapons and military equipment in the 90s-2000s, it looked absurd. Naturally, he said, many Russian military specialists have always been in favor of relieving Russia of these obligations to limit medium-range missiles.
Russia's advantage
Russia, while refraining from the serial production of intermediate range missiles due to the INF treaty, "continued to produce intercontinental ballistic missiles and Iskander missiles," Kashin noted. "In other words, the industry's potential to produce ballistic missiles is quite significant. We also achieved some technical superiority over the Americans in the development of hypersonic technologies. Also, during the special military operation it became possible to significantly step up the output of cruise missiles." All of this, according to the expert, "allows Russia to expect that it will have quantitative and, probably, even qualitative superiority over the enemy in these weapons."
At the same time, he believes that the Americans will have to siphon off a significant share of their resources to contain China, since "China is the absolute leader in the production of medium-range missiles thanks to its enormous production capabilities. Kashin recalled that China "has a massive industry employing tens of thousands, which enables it to produce more missiles than anyone else in the world."
"To be sure, we have a clear adversary - the United States and its allies in Europe - and we are capable of creating a robust and impressive group of missile forces," the expert concluded.