MOSCOW, December 1. /TASS/. The forthcoming visit of US Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the White House incumbent's son-in-law, to Moscow to continue negotiations on a Ukrainian settlement is expected to be productive and will uphold the spirit of Anchorage. However, its success hinges on the US side's willingness to genuinely listen to Russia's position, independent of prior meetings in Geneva and Florida, according to Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics and an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club.
Earlier, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov informed the media that President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Witkoff is scheduled for the afternoon of December 2. "I believe the visit will be very useful, as it will focus on outlining a peace settlement for Ukraine. It will build on the spirit of Anchorage and the agreements reached there. Therefore, the visit will be beneficial and a step toward peace," he told TASS. "But whether it succeeds or fails, and how much it can advance a peace process, depends on the specifics of the discussions."
Russian-American negotiation scenarios
Suslov envisions two possible scenarios, each contingent on Washington's approach to dialogue with Moscow. One involves disregarding previous agreements in Geneva and Florida, instead relying on the original 28-point peace plan. "Everything depends on whether Witkoff and Kushner will strictly adhere to the agreements made by the US, Ukraine, and Europe in Geneva and Florida, or whether the US delegation will show flexibility and discuss a position that aligns with both US and Russian interests based on the original 28-point plan," Suslov explained.
He noted that if the US insists on the understandings from Geneva and Florida as its final stance, it is unlikely that Russia and the US will reach a consensus on a draft. "If the US insists that Ukraine's complete refusal to join NATO and constitutional amendments are unacceptable for Ukraine, or that similar issues in Donbass are non-negotiable for the US, and maintains this stance while defending the understandings from Geneva and Florida, then significant agreement is improbable," Suslov said.
Conversely, if the US is prepared to negotiate anew, setting aside previous discussions and focusing on the 28-point plan, a different outcome is possible. "In that case, there’s a high likelihood of reaching an understanding, including on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass - something supported by a significant part of the Trump administration, including Witkoff and Kushner, and even Trump himself, who was open to Ukraine leaving Donbass as per the original 28-point proposal," he continued.
Under this scenario, Moscow and Washington could agree on the necessity of legally enshrining Ukraine's non-membership in NATO and recognizing new Russian territories, as the Trump administration previously indicated. "Following Witkoff and Kushner’s visit, we might see more substantial agreements than those reached with Ukraine and Europe after Geneva and Florida," Suslov said. "This would mark a significant step toward peace, demonstrating Russia’s constructive stance and readiness for resolution, while portraying Ukraine and Europe as obstacles."
Without interference or disruption
Suslov emphasized that under the second scenario, Washington would likely increase pressure on Kiev to make it agree to the necessary concessions discussed in Moscow. He pointed out that Russia’s rapid advances on the frontlines and the corruption scandal in Ukraine diminish the likelihood of Kiev and Brussels disrupting future agreements, as they did after Anchorage. "The chances of such disruptions are slimmer now, given that the Trump administration views Ukraine as weak both domestically and internationally, and recognizes that prolonging the war harms Ukraine," he explained. "Furthermore, the current US stance suggests readiness to impose tougher measures on Ukraine, including halting arms supplies and intelligence sharing."
On Geneva and Florida talks
The US previously proposed a 28-point plan for resolving the Ukrainian conflict, which angered Kiev and its European partners, prompting attempts to significantly amend it. On November 23, US and Ukrainian representatives held consultations in Geneva. Trump later stated that the original US peace plan had been revised to incorporate Moscow and Kiev’s positions, reducing the points to 22 and addressing only a few contentious issues.
On November 30, US and Ukrainian officials met in Florida to discuss ending the conflict, long-term economic and security solutions, elections in Ukraine, and territorial issues. The US delegation included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner, while Ukraine was represented by officials such as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov and First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislitsa. Rubio described the talks as constructive but acknowledged that much work remained. He expressed US optimism about the prospects for peace, tempered by a realistic outlook.