MOSCOW, September 22. /TASS/. Berlin’s losses from the Nord Stream sabotage are estimated to exceed €160 bln; Tehran halts IAEA cooperation after the UN reinstates sanctions under the snapback mechanism; and US President Donald Trump calls on the Taliban to return Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Germany’s losses from Nord Stream sabotage exceed €160 bln
Germany’s overall losses from the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines have surpassed €160 bln, Bundestag members told Izvestia. The halt of cheap Russian gas deliveries has worsened fiscal challenges, triggered higher prices and unemployment, and put German social benefits under threat, experts caution. At the same time, Berlin continues to withhold information about its probe into the pipeline blasts. Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to file a case with the International Court of Justice, the scope of which will depend on ongoing but so far fruitless negotiations with Europe, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed.
"By preliminary estimates, the volume of gas supplied through Nord Stream in 2021, around 59 bln cubic meters, led to extra annual replacement expenses of about €50 bln at 2022 prices. To this must be added irretrievable investments in the pipelines of more than €15 bln overall along with damage and repair costs after the explosions," Bundestag member Steffen Kotre from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and member of the parliamentary committee on economics and energy told Izvestia. "However, the real consequences are hard to assess with certainty, since they depend on market rates, consumption changes, and alternative sources," he added.
He stressed that Nord Stream had been Germany’s most affordable source of gas. He added that the current German leadership will likely continue to follow the "dictates of the EU" and will not seek to restart gas supplies from Russia, thereby intensifying economic losses year after year.
According to Alexander Kotov, head of the German economy sector at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Germany’s drift toward deindustrialization and crisis in key industries began exactly with the halt of Russian energy exports. "Today enterprises in Germany are constantly closing down. The number of bankruptcies in June and July hit the highest average in ten years. So, the crisis is objectively real," the expert emphasized.
In September of last year, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced that Moscow would appeal to the International Court of Justice over the pipeline sabotage if the issue failed to be resolved during the pretrial settlement stage. The Foreign Ministry told Izvestia that Russia is actively preparing such an appeal in this case.
Vedomosti: Return of UN sanctions against Iran sparks diplomatic rift as Tehran suspends IAEA cooperation
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has announced the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including inspections of its nuclear facilities, a measure approved by the authorities on September 14. According to the Tasnim news agency, the decision was prompted by the UN Security Council’s failure on September 19 to block the restoration of sanctions against Tehran under the "snapback" mechanism. The initiative came from the so-called E3 countries, which consist of the UK, France, and Germany - signatories to the JCPOA who accuse Iran of failing to honor its commitments under the deal, which the United States unilaterally pulled out of in 2018. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe the snapback sanctions will worsen Iran’s already severe economic and political crisis, though their impact could be significantly softened if Russia, China, and other states refuse to recognize them.
Senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Sazhin told the newspaper that in the time remaining before September 27, new negotiations between Iran and the E3 cannot be excluded. After that date, he explained, international sanctions against Iran will take effect automatically, as outlined by one of the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, originally backed by both Russia and China. Moscow, however, now argues that the Europeans have no right to invoke this mechanism, since they themselves violated the agreement, Sazhin continued.
According to the expert, a highly probable outcome is that Russia and China will refuse to comply with sanctions against Iran, in contrast to the Europeans and the United States. Severe international sanctions, however, would still be a major burden for Tehran on top of its domestic restrictions. Sazhin stressed that Iran’s internal situation is already deeply strained - economically, financially, and politically. With widespread public dissatisfaction with the regime, the country’s future path is difficult to forecast.
In response to the activation of the snapback mechanism, Tehran has officially declared that it may consider withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Senior Researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Yuri Lyamin told Vedomosti. However, he emphasized, this is only one possible scenario. Should Russia, China, and several other states refuse to recognize the sanctions, their negative impact on Iran would be significantly mitigated.
Izvestia: US Navy destroyer enters Baltic Sea for NATO drills as Russia monitors maneuvers
The US Navy destroyer USS Bainbridge has entered the waters of the Baltic Sea and is currently operating in its northern sector, sources told Izvestia. The vessel will take part in NATO’s Neptune Strike naval drills, which started on September 22. Experts note that Russia’s Baltic Fleet has established close surveillance of the alliance’s ships and will observe their activities until the completion of all exercises.
The Bainbridge is an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, one of several dozen in the US Navy, military expert and editor of the MilitaryRussia website Dmitry Kornev told the newspaper.
"An American destroyer is a powerful combat unit," he told Izvestia. "We will be watching its presence near Russian territory. In the Baltic we have vessels capable of countering such destroyers," the expert added.
According to naval expert Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin, although NATO officially describes the exercise as defensive, in practice it will practice elements of a blockade of St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad region.
"NATO does not hide its plan to turn the Baltic into its internal sea. We are the only country preventing that. Above all, their task is to apply pressure on St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, where our naval bases and major shipbuilding centers are located," he said.
Military analyst Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia that NATO vessels will also practice a wide array of other missions. "One of the main objectives will be blocking trade routes in the Baltic Sea and inspecting vessels they consider suspicious," he said. "Another possible scenario is simulating strikes against targets on our territory. In addition, they will train interoperability among multinational naval units, joint maneuvering, communications, anti-submarine warfare, air-defense operations, and electronic warfare," the expert added.
NATO continues to expand its training program. At the same time with Neptune Strike, the Dynamic Messenger 25 exercise kicked off on September 22 in the Atlantic Ocean, focusing on the deployment of unmanned maritime systems, including autonomous surface ships, submarines, and aerial platforms.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump demands return of Bagram Base as Taliban rejects US pressure
US President Donald Trump once again shocked observers by demanding that Afghanistan return the Bagram Air Base, located near Kabul, to the United States. He warned that if Afghanistan declines, there would be consequences. Kabul, now ruled by the Taliban, responded to Washington by making clear that the base will not be handed back. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta argue that the Taliban views Bagram as a hard-earned symbol of victory and will not relinquish it, while Afghanistan’s neighbors and the West pursue pragmatic ties with Kabul, leaving Washington’s demand unrealistic.
The Afghan government recalled that under the Doha Agreement, on the basis of which US forces withdrew from the country, the United States committed itself not to use force or threaten the territorial integrity or political independence of Afghanistan, and not to interfere in the country’s internal affairs. For the Taliban, surrendering Bagram is non-negotiable: it stands as a symbol of their triumph.
Commenting on the situation, The Washington Post noted that Trump introduced a new angle by stating he was seeking to reclaim the base because "the Afghans want some things from us."
Different countries approach Afghanistan with their own interests. For the European Union, the central concern is rising anti-immigrant sentiment, the growing popularity of far-right parties, and increasing calls for the deportation of undocumented Afghan migrants. To carry out such expulsions, however, requires the Taliban’s cooperation. Many states, including the United States, also find themselves aligned with the Taliban against a shared enemy - radical jihadist groups active along the Afghan-Pakistani border. For Afghanistan’s neighbors, meanwhile, the country remains important both as a trading partner and a transit route.
According to Michael Kugelman, senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation in Canada, emerging foreign ties represent "a significant strategic success for the Taliban." Nevertheless, he noted, the movement continues to struggle to escape international isolation.
"The Americans lost the war. And now they're saying, ‘Give us back the base.’ It's as if they're demanding a base from Vietnam. Who would agree to that? After all, the United States lost the war," Alexander Lukin, academic director of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Kommersant: Russian coal exporters cut prices to retain market share amid weak demand and slim profitability
Demand for Russian coal continues in both western and eastern markets, but buyers are insisting on reductions. Prices are also dropping in South Korea, a market that has recently gained significance, where Russia secured the leading position in coal supplies this summer. Export activity may be driven by the industry’s determination to maintain market share in the expectation that global prices have already hit a bottom and that the ruble may soften, Kommersant writes.
Buyers of Russian coal are demanding price concessions, which limits any upward price movement, according to a NEFT Research report. Analysts noted that rising freight costs add pressure on prices, increasing the overall cost of deliveries.
According to NEFT Research, thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal per kilogram at Baltic ports dropped in price by 1.3% during the week ending September 14 to $61.3 per ton (FOB). At the port of Taman, prices fell by 0.9%, to $70 per ton (FOB). Coal from these ports is primarily exported to the Turkish market and to countries in the Middle East and North Africa (the MENA region).
Coal supplied to South Korea also declined in price, despite continued interest. Competitive pricing played a pivotal role: the average price of Russian coal in August was $89.03 per ton.
Chief Analyst at the Investment Analysis Center of Rosgosstrakh Life Mikhail Shulgin believes the primary objective of such export supplies is now to safeguard volumes and jobs in the coal sector. According to him, expectations that prices on the global thermal coal market have stabilized, reached a plateau, and will not fall much further, combined with the prospect of ruble depreciation in the coming months, are motivating efforts to maintain export market share in anticipation of an eventual recovery in profitability.
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