MOSCOW, September 5. /TASS/. The "coalition of the willing" seeks to escalate tensions with Russia; NATO steps up threats against Russia in the Arctic; and the US moves to block the recognition of Palestinian state at the United Nations. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: 'Coalition of willing' moves to raise tensions with Russia
Discord is rising in the Western camp over talks with Russia. France and some other EU countries are seeking to undermine the emerging path to resolving the Ukraine conflict, Russian Ambassador to Paris Alexey Meshkov told Izvestia. French President Emmanuel Macron announced on September 4 that 26 members of the so-called "coalition of the willing" were ready to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. However, some countries, namely Poland and Italy, declined to take part in the operation. Meanwhile, the United States is in no rush to align itself with radicals in the Western camp.
The "coalition of the willing" is losing its stability because its members have different budget priorities. Maintaining support for Ukraine at the level achieved in 2022 and 2023 will become increasingly difficult," Valdai Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov points out. "They have brought together almost as many countries ready to join the coalition as possible. Interest in the Ukraine conflict is rather waning than growing, so there is unlikely to be another wave of those seeking to join the platform," the analyst explained.
The big question still concerns Washington’s participation in security guarantees for Ukraine. US President Donald Trump sent his special envoy Steve Witkoff to the coalition’s meeting in Paris, and afterwards, spoke with European leaders over the phone. "By choosing Witkoff as US representative at the meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing,’ Trump sent a message to European leaders, because the special envoy is one of the US officials who are trying to take Russia’s interests into account," Kortunov stressed.
According to Diplomatic Academy Vice Principal Oleg Karpovich, the "coalition of the willing" continues to look into the options to provide assistance to Ukraine, but they have no real leverage, except meaningless sanctions. It seems they expect to draw the US into their schemes, but the Trump administration has so far been cautious.
The "coalition of the willing" holds such meetings on a regular basis, but what was special about the recent conference is that it took place right after a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China. Many participants in the Paris meeting pointed to potential threats coming from non-Western countries. In particular, they are concerned about a rapprochement between India and China, an end to North Korea’s isolation on the international stage and deepening ties between Russia and China, Kortunov added.
Izvestia: NATO increases threats to Russia in Arctic
NATO continues its military buildup in the Far North. Just the other day, open monitoring systems recorded the flight of a US B-2A Spirit bomber, capable of delivering nuclear weapons, not far from Norway. According to the information provided to Izvestia by the Russian embassy in Oslo, the bloc’s efforts to militarize the Arctic region are being coordinated by the United Kingdom.
Meanwhile, NATO’s growing activity at high latitudes poses risks to Russia’s security and raises the danger of escalation. In response, Moscow is strengthening its presence in the region.
There are several reasons behind Britain’s interest in the Arctic. First, climate change is contributing to the glacial melting process and the opening of new logistics routes, said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics. "The United Kingdom has the potential to become an active user of the Transpolar Sea Route, which in the future could serve as an alternative to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. Second, it’s about economic and resource opportunities, such as access to critical minerals and oil," the expert added.
Other NATO members, notably Canada, the Scandinavian countries, and the United States, have also stepped up their activity in the Arctic. France has unveiled its Arctic Defense Strategy, while in July Germany deployed a naval squadron to the region.
Tamara Nazarenko, junior researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, emphasizes that NATO has no Arctic strategy or a separate document on the Arctic; besides, the bloc has no northern command. The reason why the bloc began paying more attention to the region is the accession of two Arctic nations, Finland and Sweden.
Western countries continue to distance themselves from Russia in the North, which is especially clear from the activities of the Arctic Council, the key international platform in the region. Although its mandate does not include military security issues, cooperation on non-military matters has also been effectively cut off. However, Nikita Lipunov, junior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believes that there still are ways to prevent an escalation of tensions in the Arctic because no one is interested in a direct confrontation.
Media: US seeks to block recognition of Palestinian state on UN platform
Divisions on the Palestinian issue are widening in the West. The United States and Israel are trying to prevent the recognition of the State of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly session. Washington has urged Paris to abandon unilateral decisions, while Tel Aviv has threatened to close the French consulate in Jerusalem. The US has also refused to issue visas to members of the Palestinian delegation led by National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Izvestia writes.
The United States’ actions echo the 1988 developments, when Washington denied a US visa to Yasser Arafat, and the meeting was moved to Geneva; it’s a strange decision for a country that hosts the international body, Ahmed Majdalani, a member of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, told Izvestia. According to him, Palestine expects these obstacles to be removed, but even if not, it hopes the countries that are willing to recognize the State of Palestine will not change their mind.
Majdalani noted that despite pressure, a clear trend had emerged in Europe to support Palestinian statehood. Abbas will probably deliver his address via video link, Majdalani added, expressing confidence that the recognition process is irreversible.
Meanwhile, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes that the US has rarely blocked foreign officials from addressing the UN General Assembly. Even when tensions were extremely high between the US and Libya, Muammar Gaddafi addressed the UN, as well as Iran’s president. As a condition for participation in the General Assembly session, the US demanded Abbas stop attempts to secure recognition of the Palestinian state. Given that the Palestinian leader has been calling for this on all international platforms, including the UN, for at least ten years, the pretext for keeping him out of the General Assembly appears unconvincing.
In the meantime, Israel has announced plans to continue its military operation in Gaza by the end of the year. Israeli forces have already taken control of 30-40% of Gaza City, and the operation to seize it is unlikely to pose serious difficulties for the Israeli army. However, retaining control of the region in the long term will be a major challenge, Palestinian security expert Muhammed al-Masri told Izvestia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Plans to make Mexico part of US dropped from agenda
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has paid a visit to Mexico, seeking to ease the tensions in bilateral relations that were sparked by Donald Trump. At the beginning of his second term in office, the US president threatened to annex the neighboring country and announced plans to send troops there, accusing Mexico of failing to rein in the drug mafia and illegal immigration. But now, it seems that the US and Mexico are setting aside disputes in order to cooperate in the fight against drug cartels and illegal migrants, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
During Rubio’s visit, the parties managed to agree on joint actions against illegal immigration and drug trafficking, which won’t involve extreme measures such as the deployment of US troops to the neighboring country. In the spring and summer, the US increased pressure on Mexico, sending about 10,000 troops to the border, accusing Mexican banks of money laundering, and revoking the visas of some Mexican politicians. In July, the US president threatened to impose 30% tariffs on Mexican imports. Trump is determined to make it clear that the White House will no longer be lenient with its closest neighbors - Mexico and Canada - and will use any means to force them to make concessions and deals.
"Relations with Mexico and Canada are among the Trump administration’s priorities. The White House is trying to rebuild them from scratch, guided by pragmatism," Vladimir Krotkov, professor with the Political Science Department at the State Academic University for the Humanities, pointed out. Although immigration issues top Trump’s agenda as far as Mexico is concerned, he keeps in mind that he will also have to report to his voters about the fight against illegal migrants and drug trafficking, the expert added.
That said, security issues are coming to dominate for the US president in terms of relations with Mexico, while with Canada, the economy is a priority. "Trump’s policy is generally aimed at repatriating capital and creating points of growth and jobs in the United States," Krotkov said. These goals are what the US administration’s actions stem from. Despite various grounds for cooperation and pressing issues, Trump seeks to achieve success in all areas, albeit not always in gentle or diplomatic ways.
Media: Analysts expect Russia’s Central Bank to cut key rate
Russia’s Central Bank will once again reduce the key rate at its meeting on September 12, said analysts and entrepreneurs interviewed by Vedomosti. They expect the key rate to fall to 16-17%.
A decision on the key rate will be made in a situation where core inflation has remained within the 4-4.5% range for a fourth consecutive month, Gazprombank Chief Economist Pavel Biryukov noted. What the Central Bank could find more important is the dynamics of economic activity, experts said. Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency, points out that a sharp economic slowdown argues in favor of a key rate reduction.
Businesses also expect the rate to go down. Alexander Kalinin, president of the Opora Rossii platform, believes that it will be reduced to 16%, reaching 12% by the end of the year. "This will support Russian businesses, making loans more accessible," he elaborated.
The key rate remains the main tool of the inflation targeting policy that the Central Bank will continue to pursue, economist Lazar Badalov told Izvestia. "Such an approach sparks debate, but despite criticism, Central Bank officials remain of the opinion that the strategy is effective," the expert added. "However, stable results will depend on external factors, including geopolitics, sanctions and the situation on commodity markets," Yulya Kuznetsova, president of the Association of Financial and Investment Advisors, warned.
The key rate could return to a level below 10% only if the GDP forecast is met, as well as scenarios for oil prices and the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate, Mikhail Tkachenko, head of investment practice at the vvCube consulting group, observed. According to Kuznetsova, this won’t happen until late 2026.
Still, there is a possibility that the key rate will be reduced below 10% as early as next year, Badalov said. "The fact is that a lot of economic sectors are suffering from high interest rates, and the Central Bank needs to react to that. Without a significant reduction in the key rate - to 10-12% - the economy will face major difficulties," the analyst stressed.
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