MOSCOW, August 5. /TASS/. Rising global energy prices boosted Russia's export revenues and supported the appreciation of the ruble in March-May 2026, according to the summary of the Bank of Russia's key rate discussion.
"The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has so far had a primarily disinflationary effect on the Russian economy. Rising global energy prices increased export revenues and supported ruble appreciation in March-May. This effect has already been significantly evident in the subdued dynamics of consumer prices this spring," the document noted.
According to the Central Bank, the ruble has corrected since the June meeting to its late April 2026 levels. Discussion participants attributed the ruble's recent weakening primarily to a notable decline in prices for key Russian export commodities since mid-May. Concurrently, high demand for foreign currency to pay for imports persisted, further impacting the ruble's dynamics.
The summary emphasized that the Middle East conflict continued to exert a stronger impact on global inflation than on overall economic activity. Despite a massive price shock in commodity markets at the end of the first quarter, global economic growth remained robust. However, inflationary pressures in key developed economies exceeded expectations, keeping future global inflation trends highly uncertain. This uncertainty stems from potential secondary effects of the commodity shock, as rising costs could gradually spill over into a broader range of goods and services even after raw material prices decline.
Furthermore, most major central banks kept their interest rates unchanged, while some shifted toward hikes. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Russia's key rate cut is leading to a more pronounced narrowing of the interest rate differential between Russia and other countries.