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Steel consumption in Russia to fall to lowest level since 2011 in 2025 — forecast

The decline from the historical peak amounts to nearly 20%

MOSCOW, December 17. /TASS/. Steel production in Russia is expected to decline by 19% in 2025 to 57 mln tons, while consumption will drop by 15% to 37.1 mln tons, the lowest level since 2011, according to a study by the National Credit Ratings agency.

"Visible steel consumption in Russia, according to NCR estimates, will decrease by 15% in 2025 to 37.1 mln tons — the lowest figure since 2011. By comparison, consumption reached a record high of 46.3 mln tons in 2023, meaning the decline from the historical peak amounts to nearly 20%," the report said.

Experts added that the outlook for 2026 remains cautiously pessimistic. Under favorable conditions, a slight recovery in production is possible, with growth of up to 3% compared to 2025. Potential growth drivers include monetary policy easing and lower interest rates, the implementation of national infrastructure projects, and increased exports to developing countries.

Analysts attribute the contraction in production and demand to a combination of domestic and external factors, including geopolitical constraints, oversupply in the global steel market, high interest rates, and a stronger ruble. According to estimates by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), global excess steelmaking capacity in 2025 has risen to approximately 680 mln tons, exacerbating pressure on prices and output volumes.

According to analysts’ estimates, returning to 2021 output levels (around 77.8 mln tons) will require several years — from five to seven — provided that risks related to sanctions and instability in external markets are reduced.

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