ST. PETERSBURG, September 26. /TASS/. Scientists record for several weeks the processes of autumn ice formation, which happens extremely early and may cause navigation problems along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). At the same time, on NSR there is a clear tendency for the early ice cover destruction and later autumn freezing processes, Anastasia Ilyina of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute’s Center for Ice Hydrometeorology Information told TASS.
“We are presently in a new climatic period, which has lighter ice conditions. <…> If we speak about what’s happening now, the institute’s scientists have been recording the autumn ice formation process for several weeks now, which is unusually early and may lead to difficulties in navigation this year," she told the Neva International Exhibition and Conference in St. Petersburg.
The expert pointed to the current shrinking of the ice sheet mass, not of its area. Some 15-20 years ago, the ice used to be thicker. Right now, there is less residual and old ice on the route section – the ice of more than 1.7 – 2 meters thick.
“Light ice conditions make navigation easier and extend its time, but we must remember local ice outlet zones that do not collapse during the entire summer period and that complicate navigation for ships of low ice classes. In some years, for example, in 2012, the route got completely cleared of ice," the scientist explained.
The Institute’s experts have made a climate forecast to 2050. They expect a slight cooling in the NSR area in about 7 years, followed by a slight warming. However, on average, ice in the Arctic seas will remain at the same level with a slight upward trend, the institute’s representative said in conclusion.
About the exhibition
The NEVA 2025 International Exhibition and Conference on Civil Shipbuilding, Shipping, Port Operations, Ocean and Shelf Development runs in St. Petersburg on September 23-26.