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Upward deviation of Russian economy from balanced growth path narrowing — Central Bank

High-frequency data and survey indicators show a slowdown in overall economic activity growth in Q3 2025, while the growth rate is still positive

MOSCOW, September 12. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia has announced the narrowing upward deviation of the economy from a balanced growth path. Meanwhile a significant cooldown is recorded in export-oriented industries whereas consumer activity growth has even slightly sped up, the regulator said in a press release following its board meeting on the key rate.

"The upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path is narrowing. High-frequency data and survey indicators show a slowdown in overall economic activity growth in Q3 2025, while the growth rate is still positive. The dynamics of business activity is uneven across industries. A significant cooldown is recorded in export-oriented industries. Domestic demand is backed up by rising household incomes and budget expenditures. Consumer activity growth has even slightly sped up," the document reads.

The Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate for the third consecutive time, this time by 1 percentage point, bringing it down to 17% per annum. The regulator intends to maintain such a level of monetary policy strictness as necessary to bring inflation back to target by 2026, with further decisions on the key rate to depend on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations.

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