MOSCOW, February 20. /TASS/. The ruble's rally over the past month and a half can be attributed to the improving geopolitical and economic environment in Russia, experts told TASS. That said, the appreciation of the Russian national currency looks rather speculative so far, they added.
Thus, on the Forex market the dollar sat at 88.35 rubles on February 20, as per ICE (a composite index of several forex brokers), having lost 20.2% of its value since early January. The euro was at 92.02 rubles (-19.36%), while the Chinese yuan fell from 15.12 rubles to 12.18 rubles in a month and a half.
"Talks between Russian and US officials took place in Saudi Arabia this week. They are estimated very positively, as the countries agreed to bring back comprehensive cooperation in a number of areas. Financial markets reacted very positively to this news," Freedom Finance Global’s Vladimir Chernov said.
The strengthening of the Russian national currency in 2025 looks rather speculative as the sanctions regime has not seen any meaningful easing and there is no sign of that happening any time soon, he added.
Apart from geopolitics, the slowdown of weekly inflation rates and a decline in household inflation expectations have helped prop the ruble up, Chernov noted.
Meanwhile, BCS Investment World’s Alexander Shepelev believes the ruble is currently buoyed by the upcoming tax period, during which companies sell additional foreign currency to meet fiscal obligations. "Once this period ends in early March, foreign currencies will likely regain some ground," he stressed.
Natalia Vashchelyuk, Senior Analyst at the Pervaya management company, suggests that the ruble’s appreciation is a temporary deviation from fundamental norms. ""In the current environment, geopolitical factors remain decisive. The uncertainty is too high, and much will depend on the specifics of any potential agreements—if they are reached at all," she said.
Freedom Finance Global believes that if the dollar’s exchange rate drops below 87-88 rubles and stabilizes at those levels it can be expected to decline further - to the 83-85 rubles range. "Financial markets operate on expectations, adjusting prices even before key events unfold. Russia’s geopolitical and economic outlook has improved, negotiations have begun, and optimism is growing daily due to positive remarks from both Russian and US representatives. Additionally, inflation in Russia is stabilizing," Chernov said.
At BCS World of Investments, analysts believe that exchange rates are hovering near annual lows, with geopolitical risk premiums mostly priced in. Therefore, they do not expect the ruble to strengthen much further. Shepelev forecasts a mild ruble depreciation in the coming weeks, with the dollar rising to 93.5 rubles, the euro to 96 rubles, and the yuan to 12.7-13 rubles.
Pervaya maintains a base case scenario with the dollar trading at around 108-110 rubles by the end of the year given the lack of any geopolitical agreements so far. That said, in the event of geopolitical warming the ruble’s weakening will be less impressive compared with current levels - to 103 rubles by the end of 2025. In March, the dollar’s exchange rate is projected at 90-100 rubles, while the yuan is expected to equal 12.3-13.7 rubles.