WASHINGTON, February 18. /TASS/. The probability of a US military operation against Iran in the coming weeks stands at 90%, Axios portal reported quoting an unnamed adviser of the American President Donald Trump.
The War Zone portal said the number of US forces deployed to the Middle East is enough for a "major operation" against Iran lasting several weeks together with the Israeli Air Force.
TASS has compiled the key facts about the situation around Iran.
Pulling the US army to the Middle East
- The US has deployed 50 more F-35, F-22 and F-16 fighter jets to the Middle East in the last 24 hours alone, an Axios story on a possible start of an American operation in Iran in the coming weeks says.
- It says Washington is pulling together more and more forces in the Middle East: two aircraft carrier strike groups, about 12 ships, hundreds of fighters and several missile defense systems.
- According to it, more than 150 military transport flights delivered weapons and ammunition to the region.
- The US forces numbers will be enough to conduct a "major operation" against Iran lasting several weeks together with the Israeli Air Force, according to the War Zone portal.
- According to the portal, which quotes web services, the U-2 Dragon Lady reconnaissance aircraft, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-22 Raptor and E-3 Sentry radar detection aircraft are currently crossing the Atlantic or have recently arrived in Europe.
- The number of US warships in the area of responsibility of the US Central Command now amounts to 12, War Zone says.
- Over 30,000 troops are now stationed at the Middle East bases, the portal reports.
- War Zone says it has no information on whether US President Donald Trump has decided to attack Iran.
- According to the portal, steps to boost the military presence are "expected on the eve of a long-term operation," and in the coming days Washington will send even more forces to the region.
The likelihood of an operation against Iran
- The probability of a military operation against Iran in the coming weeks amounts to 90%, Axios quoted an unnamed adviser to Trump as saying.
- According to two Israeli officials, "the Israeli government — which is pushing for a maximalist scenario targeting regime change as well as Iran's nuclear and missile programs — is preparing for a scenario of war within days."
- American sources differ in their estimates: some suggest that strikes may be carried out in a few weeks, while others allow for a shorter timeframe.
- The US military operation against Iran is likely to take the form of a campaign lasting several weeks, which will look like a full-scale war, Axios writes citing sources.
- According to them, it is assumed that it will be a joint American-Israeli operation, significantly larger in scope than in June 2025, when the United States attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Axios says that "with the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there is little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade."
Negotiations in Geneva
- On February 17, the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran on the nuclear dossier was held in Geneva with the mediation of Oman.
- According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the parties reached an understanding on some issues, the agreements on which can be included in the draft of a future agreement on the nuclear program.
- US Vice President JD Vance said that the negotiations went well in some aspects, but Tehran is not yet ready to recognize a number of principled positions that the White House outlined.
- On Wednesday, Araghchi held a telephone conversation with Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi to discuss the framework of the next stage of negotiations with the United States on the nuclear dossier, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
- Araghchi stressed Tehran's focus on "developing an initial and agreed framework to advance future negotiations" with Washington.