MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. Making progress on another nuclear deal with Russia will take time, preparation, and tough negotiations, as well as both sides' compliance with the key limits of the expired Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), Daryl Kimball, the head of the American Arms Control Association, has told the TASS Analytical Center.
"To improve the chances of success now that New START has ended, Trump and Putin should continue to respect the treaty's central limits. They should also refrain from talking about - let alone taking actions - that would increase the size of their respective deployed arsenals and immediately launch serious and sustained nuclear bilateral negotiations on a new framework deal," the expert believes.
Some politicians and experts argue that the New START regime remains viable if the treaty's de facto limitations are adhered to. Russian officials say Moscow will act responsibly after New START has expired.
"We have been arguing for years that because a new follow-on framework for nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia will be difficult to negotiate and will take substantial time, the two sides should not increase their deployed warhead and their deployed strategic launcher numbers in order to create a better environment for progress. Furthermore, there is no practical military reason to increase the US or Russian strategic arsenals, or deploy exotic new weapons like Poseidon and Skyfall, in order to maintain or enhance the mutual balance of nuclear terror (a.k.a. deterrence)," Kimball noted in this regard. "Many other experts, US politicians and other leaders agree with us."
No clear formula
If, according to the expert, the leaders of the United States and Russia can agree to maintain mutual restrictions on their strategic nuclear arsenals and resume bilateral nuclear negotiations, they will be in a stronger position to urge China, France, and Britain to respond by freezing their strategic launchers at current levels. Asked whether he considers it realistic to develop a new agreement to replace the New START Treaty, which the US president is insisting on, Kimball replied that for now "it is not clear what Trump thinks he is insisting on."
"They don't have a clear formula. Three-way talks (US-China-Russia) are theoretically possible, but not practical, and are not going to be accepted by the Chinese." "Russia may be concerned about the UK and French arsenals, but that doesn't mean there should be five-way talks," he added.
The New START Treaty, the last international legal limitation on nuclear deployment, expired on February 5. Trump stated that he hoped to negotiate a better agreement, involving China.
Russia proposed continuing to observe the START restrictions for another year after the expiration, but has not received any official response from Washington to this initiative. Regarding China's participation, Moscow believes that this is a matter for Beijing itself and will respect any decision by the Chinese side. At the same time, Russia emphasized that if the START's scope were to be expanded, it would be to include the US's nuclear NATO allies - Britain and France - whose nuclear potential is not covered by any strategic stability treaty.