BANGKOK, January 30. /TASS/. A potential military conflict between the United States and Iran would devastate the world economy, destabilize the entire Middle East, and could follow a Vietnam-like scenario, a retired Royal Thai Army General and geopolitical economy expert Somchai Virunhaphol told TASS in an interview.
"Iran's asymmetric warfare capabilities, proxy forces, drones, missiles, and cyber capabilities – can sustain prolonged resistance. A prolonged war would devastate the global economy, destabilize the entire Middle East, potentially draw in major powers, and ultimately may end like Vietnam – proving that military might alone cannot overcome a people fighting for their sovereignty and beliefs. The cost would be measured not in billions but in trillions, and not in thousands but potentially millions of lives," the analyst explained.
"A US military strike against Iran poses catastrophic risks far beyond the immediate region. First, Iran possesses what I call an 'economic nuclear weapon,' the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and destroy oil infrastructure across the Gulf, potentially removing 12-20 million barrels per day from global markets and triggering oil prices to 100-150 dollars per barrel, causing worldwide recession," Virunhaphol stressed.
"Second, we must learn from history. The parallels between Iran today and Vietnam under Ho Chi Minh are striking – both have strong ideological foundations mixing religion or ideology with nationalism, support from major powers like China and Russia, and populations willing to sacrifice for their beliefs. Military superiority alone cannot defeat such determination, as America learned in Vietnam. Third, this conflict could force China and Russia into a corner. After losing Venezuela's oil supplies, China has no choice but to defend Iran," the expert continued.
According to Virunhaphol , "the world is witnessing blatant double standards." "The US threatens to attack Iran over protests where thousands died, while simultaneously providing 21.7 billion dollars in military aid to Israel despite over 100,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza. This hypocrisy undermines any moral authority. Most critically, Iran is not as weak as Western media portrays. Its governmental system has multiple layers of resilience, millions still support the Islamic Republic, and we don't know what weapons China and Russia have secretly provide," he concluded.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that a "massive armada" was heading toward Iran. He expressed hope that Tehran would sit down at the negotiating table and conclude a "fair and equitable" deal, implying a complete renunciation of nuclear weapons. The US leader recalled that, in June 2025, the US launched strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran under an operation codenamed Midnight Hammer. Trump warned that "the next attack will be far worse," urging "not to make that happen again."