PARIS, January 16. /TASS/. The total cost of support to Ukraine is mounting and France will encounter political repercussions when its citizens find out the real price of this policy, Director of Studies of France’s School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences Jacques Sapir told a TASS correspondent.
"Today, it is very difficult to determine how much France gave to Ukraine," the economist said, noting that he is talking about the amount already shelled out and not public promises. "Right now, I don’t get the impression that these expenditures were very substantial - probably, €2-3 bln for all the expenses together, including humanitarian aid. Yet they can quickly increase which would lead to unpleasant political consequences in France once the total amount becomes known."
According to the expert, currently, the issue of the survival of the Ukrainian economy as such is particularly poignant given that "GDP has collapsed by 35-45%, while tax revenues have plunged even further." He also highlighted the huge expenses both for the short and the long term caused by the destruction of bridges, railways and energy infrastructure. "Even under conditions where expenses are cut to a minimal amount amid the fighting, the Ukrainian government will need about €35-50 bln [in 2023] <...> not counting military spending," he estimated.
Long-term consequences
The expert suggested that if the US shoulders the bulk of military aid, then European countries will have to cover Ukraine’s social and humanitarian needs. According to his assessments, for France this amount would come to €7-10 bln, that is, up to 4.5% of the country’s GDP. The amount "does not seem to be extraordinary" but it overlaps with Paris’ efforts on battling inflation, the expert noted. According to him, this amount would have been feasible for Paris if aid was needed only in 2023, but the necessity for it may remain over the next several years.
"The question then arises as to whether France can or wants to provide such amounts for the survival of the Ukrainian economy. Theoretically, if the French come to terms with a drop in their quality of life, this may indeed happen. In reality, given the ‘fatigue’ from this war and the unconditional support for Ukraine, there could be doubts about the presence of such a desire on the part of France’s population and, in the end, on the part of its government. Ukraine is not France and this growing aversion may become evident as soon as spring of 2023 sets in," he explained, noting that German, Italian and Spanish authorities are encountering the same dilemma.
"Even if in the next few months a ceasefire is achieved in Ukraine, this won’t mean that the economy will recover, particularly after the destruction of infrastructure; what’s more, financial difficulties will remain in place, at least, until 2024. This is precisely why, most likely, European governments won’t keep their promises and will try to back away from the Ukrainian ‘problem’," the economist concluded.