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Coronavirus pandemic

Novel coronavirus epidemic in Russia to be over by early summer — forecast

As far as Russia is concerned, it is 97% likely that the epidemic in Russia will be over by May 24, and 99% likely - by June 4

© Sergei Bobylyov/TASS

MOSCOW, April 28. /TASS/. The epidemic of the novel coronavirus infection in Russia will be almost completely over by early summer 2020, according to an updated forecast by the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD).

SUTD researchers prepare such forecasts from countries hit by the coronavirus pandemic, using the widely known SIR mathematical model.

According to their forecast, the global coronavirus pandemic worldwide will be over by November.

As far as Russia is concerned, it is 97% likely that the epidemic in Russia will be over by May 24, and 99% likely - by June 4.

In Italy, the epidemic is 97% likely to be over by May 8, in the United Kingdom - 99% by May 28. In the United States, the end of the pandemic is expected by September 4.

At the same time, SUTD stresses that all of its forecasts are theoretical and should be treated with caution. It also says that readers should not be too optimistic about forecasts about the end of the pandemic, which are based on similar theoretical models.

At the same time, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Sergeyev told TASS that the SUTD research is worth looking at.

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