MOSCOW, July 29. /TASS/. Donald Trump has revised the deadline for a peace deal on Ukraine, the US and EU have signed a trade agreement, and a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand has been declared. These stories topped Tuesday's headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: US shortens deadline on Russia-Ukraine peace agreement
On July 28, US President Donald Trump announced that the White House is revising the terms of its earlier ultimatum on concluding a "deal" on Ukraine under threats of introducing 100% secondary tariffs against Moscow and its trade partners. Trump said that now he is giving it 10-12 days, which means that the term is halved versus the initial 50 days he announced on July 14, when the approximate deadline fell on September 3.
The US is increasing pressure on Russia, possibly, influenced by Europe, believes Lev Sokolshchik, a researcher at the HSE Center for Comprehensive Economic and Social Studies. In his opinion, the Europeans may have convinced Trump after concluding a trade agreement which eased tensions between the US and the EU.
After the ultimatum’s deadline, Trump is unlikely to introduce 100% tariffs against third countries, including China, with which Washington is trying to resolve trade differences, believes Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government Alexander Kamkin. The US president is attempting to dominate information space with his threats, trying to make sure the situation unfolds in a way that benefits him. "Trump is irritated by the impossibility to become a ‘peacemaker’ while both Moscow and Kiev are ‘pursuing their own policy course’ without any prospects for the swift end of hostilities," he explained.
According to Sokolshchik, the declared tariffs against Russia and its partners are of a "medium risk" for them: they may be palpable but it is possible to bypass them. However, Moscow is still interested in dialogue with Washington, standing up for its interests on the Ukrainian track as it still gives a chance to mitigate risks. He also urges to take into account the US domestic political factor, as Trump is under pressure both by hawks from the Republican party and representatives from the military-industrial complex interested in continuing the conflict. Changing the deadline is Trump’s another move in his political negotiations, believes Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council. However, the expert noted that the White House cannot endlessly resort to such instruments.
Trump hopes to speed up the peace settlement of the Ukraine conflict possibly counting on a meeting between the countries’ leaders, Kortunov said. "Theoretically, a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would be the most effective. The addition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and French leader Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to be of any use in a diplomatic breakthrough," the expert believes.
Media: Scope of EU’s concessions in trade deal with Trump
The terms of the "biggest deal ever made" with the European Union (EU) on July 27 voiced by US President Donald Trump triggered intense discussions within the association as to how the interests of all sides were taken into account. Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced achieving a framework agreement on tariffs on the evening of July 27. Instead of 30% tariffs beginning on August 1 in the absence of the deal, the US will now impose 15% tariffs on the bulk of European goods, with the exception of steel and aluminum which are still subject to 50% tariffs. That said, von der Leyen stated that this figure will be reduced after a quota system is developed. She also made another important announcement, directly linking the deal with the US with the aspiration to replace Russian energy products, including LNG.
The deal in many ways harms the EU’s interests: it speeds up attachment to the US in the energy sphere, worsens the bloc’s competitive ability, discourages investments and is "asymmetrical." However, experts believe that the choice was "between a bad and a very bad scenario." The deal will minimize the losses of the US’ partners, given their course, noted to Vedomosti Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam. According to Irina Ipatova, an expert in macroeconomic trends and forecasting at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CAMAC), Brussels’ response was fraught with a price hike within the EU itself. It decided against countermeasures as the EU is more export-oriented while 17% of deliveries go to the US without any chance of replacement, Belenkaya emphasized.
Even though Trump declared moving production to the US as a goal, EU companies began doing so a long time ago and the process will continue, Ipatova noted. "However, there may be issues with labor resources due to low unemployment, headhunting and more expensive workforce given the current immigration policy." Private investment consultant Andrey Kochetkov believes that production will continue to relocate to the US, as direct supplies from Europe will become unprofitable.
Trump’s main goal is cutting the US deficit with trade partners, Belenkaya reiterated. However, his unpredictability does not rule out the reconsideration of the deal’s terms or attempts to impose new targeted tariffs. This is fraught with inflation and the dropping profitability of the companies importing raw materials and components. "The main obstacle to investments and moving production to the US is the long-term economic uncertainty, including with retaining the current tariff," she concluded.
Alexey Grivach, Deputy Head of the National Energy Security Fund, believes that the US-EU agreement is merely a publicity stunt.
"During his previous presidential term, Trump reached pretty much the same agreement with China. After the 2018 tariff war, Washington and Beijing announced boosting trade cooperation in the energy sphere, with the Americans announcing that Chinese companies will participate in the construction of an LNG plant in Alaska. And where is this plant now? In the meantime, China reduced purchases of energy products from the US almost to zero," the expert reiterated in a conversation with Izvestia.
Izvestia: Why Thailand, Cambodia agreed on ceasefire
The risk of an escalation between Thailand and Cambodia remains, despite the truce, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. They explain this by the fact that territorial disputes between the countries still remain unsettled.
Nevertheless, on July 29, the ceasefire, which the parties had agreed on the day before, comes into effect. Three mediators participated in the settlement of the local border conflict — Malaysia, the United States and China.
"The United States is one of Thailand's leading trade partners, so economic pragmatism is very significant for it," said Yelena Burova, senior researcher at the Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The participation of the United States and China, direct geopolitical rivals, in the settlement also reflects the US-Chinese confrontation to some degree.
"Thailand is a traditional partner of the United States in the military sphere. There are American bases there. In Cambodia, the base was completely modernized by the Chinese. Accordingly, the conflict can be viewed globally as a confrontation between the United States and China, but so far it is purely regional," Burova told the newspaper.
Despite the fact that the parties have now reached an agreement, there is a possibility that the conflict could resume. Territorial disputes are smoldering coals that can be fanned at any moment. Additionally, as Paul Chambers, a visiting researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, told Izvestia, political instability in Thailand may make it difficult to control army units.
Kommersant: Aeroflot targeted by unprecedented hacking attack
The recovery of some of Aeroflot’s IT systems following a massive cyberattack may take up to two months with the full restoration taking a year. The incident caused cancellations of over one hundred flights while the company had to allocate resources at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport to restore its flight schedule. Russia’s Office of the Prosecutor General is overseeing the criminal case on the matter. Experts hope that the situation stabilizes by the end of the week.
A Kommersant source in the sphere of information security said that it is difficult to estimate the damage from such an attack, as in addition to direct losses due to setbacks and recovering infrastructure, there are potential state sanctions and fines, because "Aeroflot is a strategic state company with critical infrastructure facilities."
On average, recovery from a large-scale cyberattack can take anywhere from several weeks to six months, according to Alexey Kozlov, lead analyst at the Information Security Monitoring Department of Spikatel. "Restoring critical IT systems typically takes one to two months," he explained. "The remaining time is needed to strengthen security, conduct audits, reassess internal processes, and rebuild customer trust. If the infrastructure is severely damaged and backup copies are unavailable, full stabilization could take up to a year," the expert added.
Vedomosti: Russia sharply increases titanium exports to China
The export of Russian titanium to China in January-June 2025 has risen 3.4-fold compared to the level of the first six months of last year, reaching 4,641 tons, according to data from China's Central Administration of Customs. In the monetary equivalent, the export amounts to $48.4 million which is just 1% below last year’s level.
After the onset of the special military operation, Russia began to redirect titanium deliveries to China, but the volumes were restricted by the necessity to certify them for China’s aviation industry, noted Maxim Khudalov, an independent industry expert. Currently, all the necessary procedures have been completed so in the future the export may increase even more as China plans to expand its production of aviation equipment, the expert said. According to his estimates, this year, the deliveries of titanium and titanium products from Russia to the Chinese market may reach 7,000-8,000 tons.
China is the largest producer and exporter of raw titanium but the country lacks capabilities for producing finished products for the aerospace industry, said Alexey Kalachev, an analyst at Finam. Despite growing domestic production in China, aviation-grade titanium is still being imported, concurred Head of Equity Market Research at Alfa-Bank Boris Krasnozhenov. That said, currently, China is completing flight trials of medium-and long-range aircraft which means that high demand for titanium persists, he added.
Independent industry expert Leonid Khazanov links the increase in titanium deliveries from Russia to China with the development of other sectors of the country’s industry, such as the petrochemical, chemistry and energy spheres. Also, growing imports of Russian titanium may be related to Beijing’s plans to diversify its supply sources, he noted. Under the conditions of trade wars, China aspires to increase its metal supplies so by 2027, the country will claim more than half of global titanium imports, added Pavel Karpus, partner at S+ Consulting.
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