Helsinki is expecting to apply for NATO membership, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced on May 12. Russia immediately reacted to the news by announcing possible reciprocal steps, both military-technical and otherwise, if Helsinki becomes part of the military bloc. Together with Finland, its closest neighbor, Sweden, is also thinking about joining NATO. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the participation of Helsinki and Stockholm in the US-led military bloc will fundamentally change the political alignment in Europe.
According to Finland’s state television and radio company Yle as of May 9, 2022, 76% of its citizens support joining NATO. "Such a sharp change in public opinion is associated with Russia’s special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. It was a shock for Finnish society and the political class - they refused to believe in a possibility of this," Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs Andrey Kortunov explained to Izvestia. "The uncertainty is rising for Finland. It is changing its attitude towards NATO and, in a sense, it is justifying its desire to guarantee its security given the shift in geopolitical conditions," he added.
The question is how stable this attitude is, the expert noted. It is not known whether such support for NATO will continue in Finland in a few months or years. Nevertheless, the political leadership decided not to wait.
Together with Finland, its closest neighbor, Sweden, also plans to join NATO. "With the admission of these two countries into its ranks, NATO will make gains in the northwestern European zone. In terms of infrastructure, Norway will also be strengthened, which is quite vigorously involved in the activities of the alliance," Head of the Center for Arctic Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Zhuravel told Izvestia. "Taking into account the fact that the land border of Finland with Russia is about 1,300 km, for Moscow this is a matter of principle," he added.
Kortunov highlighted that the long Russian-Finnish border almost doubles the line of contact between the Russian Federation and NATO. "This border could also require some strengthening and modernization. In general, these two countries joining the alliance will lead to a change in the balance of forces in the Baltic Sea. If we exclude the Russian water area, then in a sense it becomes NATO’s sea," he said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU vows to protect Japan from Russia and China
Tokyo hosted a Japan-EU summit and the participants agreed to crank up pressure on Russia and counter China's expansion in the South China and East China Seas. Japan and the EU also warned Beijing against strengthening ties with Moscow. China responded by accusing the negotiators of interfering with its affairs. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the meeting once again showed Japan's desire to support the Europe and the United States amid the crisis in Ukraine.
The European Union wants to play a bigger role in Asia, where tensions are mounting over China's increasingly assertive policies, the parties announced at a press conference following the meeting. On the political front, Tokyo will work with the EU to isolate Russia. However, its diplomatic success here is not great, the newspaper writes. "After all, most countries in the Asia-Pacific region have not joined the anti-Russian sanctions," the paper noted. The trio of negotiators, as reported by Reuters, decided to maximize the interaction against Russia in areas such as energy and assistance to Ukraine.
Head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of the Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Kistanov told the newspaper, "Russian-Japanese relations were put on hold, to put it mildly, even before the start of the military operation in Ukraine. This happened after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned in 2020, who was very actively negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a peace treaty, or rather, on a territorial problem on terms that suited Japan." "When Kishida arrived on the scene, it became clear that Japan's position would become tougher. Statements began to be published that the South Kurils were ‘illegally occupied’ by the Russian Federation. In Russia, an amendment to the Constitution was also adopted, prohibiting the alienation of territories. And when the military operation began, Japan set out to put pressure on Russia in all possible ways within the framework of the G7. This was reflected in the documents of the summit with the EU," he added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow concerned about Tajikistan becoming another hotspot
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Dushanbe to attend a meeting of the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers on May 13. The top diplomats are expected to discuss issues on the international agenda, the security of Central Asia and the situation in Ukraine. Analysts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe that Tajikistan could become another hotspot if the threat from Afghanistan fails to be contained. The day before, Russia and the United States allocated $100 mln and $60 mln, respectively, to Dushanbe to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border.
The other day, militants of the ISIS terrorist group (banned in the Russian Federation), concentrated in the Afghan province of Takhor, shelled the territory of the border outpost in Tajikistan. This time, the border troops reported that Tajik territory was hit by accident, however, the danger of breaking through the boundary remains.
Lavrov earlier drew attention to this and also noted that Russia considers the deployment of any US-NATO military infrastructure on the territory of neighboring states, primarily on Central Asian soil, unacceptable. Despite the statements of the Russian minister, the US continues to finance the strengthening of the Tajik-Afghan border. It seems that Moscow and Washington have engaged in a race to see who will allocate more funds to Tajikistan, the newspaper writes.
According to Alexander Knyazev, professor at St. Petersburg State University and an expert on Central Asia and the Middle East, the United States wants to confirm its presence in the region and strengthen its position in Central Asia through Tajikistan. At the same time, it is possible that the US is also driven by another goal - assisting a CSTO member can cause tension or cast doubt on the organization itself. The expert also did not rule out an internal crisis in Tajikistan.
Vedomosti: Gazprom loses available export capacities
After Russia imposed sanctions on May 11 against Polish company Europol Gaz, which owns the section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline in Poland, Gazprom lost the opportunity to use this route for gas exports. However, experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that the shutdown of the Yamal-Europe pipeline should not interfere with the supplies of up to 150 bln cubic meters to the EU in 2022.
Yamal-Europe is not the first export route to have problems. On May 10, the Ukrainian state-owned company GTS Operator of Ukraine announced it was impossible to receive gas for transit through the Sokhranovka gas measuring station due to "force majeure circumstances".
"The impossibility of using Yamal - Europe creates an obstacle for reverse pumping, which is a problem for Poland, not for Gazprom," Head of Research at Vygon Consulting Maria Belova told the newspaper. She also noted that under the most negative scenario, the Russian monopoly still has a theoretical opportunity to use Nord Stream 2, since the bankruptcy of its management company Nord Stream AG was suspended on May 11.
In the first four months of 2022, Gazprom's exports to the EU fell by about 32.5%, but even despite the falling volumes, the monopoly still would be able to export about 150 bln cubic meters to non-CIS countries by the end of the year, senior analyst at Alfa-Bank Nikita Blokhin believes. According to the expert, the remaining capacities will be enough for Gazprom to reach this figure.
"The lack of export capacities significantly limits the EU's ability to further increase gas supplies, which may become a matter of principle in preparation for the heating season," the expert added.
Vedomosti: What happens when Siemens leaves Russia
Siemens, the renowned German multinational corporation, has embarked on terminating all production and operating activities in Russia. Siemens' business activities have been adversely affected by "the comprehensive international sanctions" against Russia, which have hampered the company's activities in the country related to rail communications and maintenance, the company said. A Siemens representative told Vedomosti that the company is terminating service contracts with Russian Railways for servicing the Sapsan and Lastochka trains from May 13. Meanwhile, experts interviewed by the newspaper believe that replacing the company's products will be difficult, but not impossible.
A Russian Railways spokesman told Vedomosti that the maintenance of the Lastochka and Sapsan trains would continue under current Russian law under the control of Russian Railways. Siemens' exit from the Ural Locomotives joint venture will not stop the production of locomotives or Lastochka trains, Deputy General Director of the Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems Vladimir Savchuk believes. But it will create difficulties in replacing components not localized in Russia with supplies from abroad using "sanctions-adapted" logistics schemes, he added.
General Director of Infoline-analytics Mikhail Burmistrov noted that the Lastochka trains are well localized and original components could be partially replaced by parts from China and other countries. However, he added that Russia has many facilities in various industries that use Siemens automation and life cycle management systems. The company stopping activities in this area would be catastrophic, and replacements could be difficult.
"Sanctions add to the complexity associated with the acquisition and logistics of components and equipment for repairs, but the departure of Siemens will not critically affect the operation of the Russian energy system. Parallel imports may be used for exports of components in the future," Director of the Energy Development Fund Sergey Pikin told Vedomosti.
Meanwhile, division of the Siemens Healthineers AG concern will continue to work in Russia. The division specializes in supplies of equipment for ultrasound diagnostics, computed tomography, MRI, as well as solutions for laboratory diagnostics. Siemens Healthineers would continue to support customers and patients in Russia, a company spokesman said
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