MOSCOW, April 22. /TASS/. If Armenia were to leave the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), its GDP would fall sharply by 15.1%, while inflation would increase by 14.3%, affecting many crucial areas of the economy, Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Alexey Shevtsov told reporters.
He noted that Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU would lead to a significant economic decline. "According to the most conservative estimates, GDP would drop by 15.1% ($3.65 billion), domestic consumption by 14.1%, and industrial production by 26.3%. Metallurgy, the production of beverages, tobacco products, and food would be affected the most, facing a decline of nearly a third," the security official emphasized.
"Chemical industry production would decrease by nearly a fifth, textile production by 15%. Inflation would rise by 14.3 percentage points, and unemployment would rise by 6.5 percentage points," Shevtsov emphasized.
He recalled that when Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on April 1, the head of state directly said that profiting from both the EU and the EAEU is impossible.
"Indeed, the EU Association Agreement is a prerequisite for joining the EU, but it cannot be signed while Armenia is a member of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union. Consequently, it would be appropriate to withdraw from the treaty," the security official added.
Shevtsov pointed out that Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU would mean the return of export restrictions, suspension of unified product and service requirements, re-imposition of full customs control, cancellation of the migrant preference regime, and application of standard cargo transportation tariffs.
"In practice, Armenian businesses, including alcohol producers, would have to search for new markets. With the reintroduction of tariffs, their goods would no longer be competitive. Logistics spending would rise, and investment would dry up. There would be no discussion of preferential energy supplies to Yerevan either," he concluded.