MOSCOW, May 12. /TASS/. The Economic Development Ministry has published the scenarios for Russia's socioeconomic development forecast for 2027 and the 2028-2029 planning period, which were reviewed by the government.
TASS has compiled the key points of the ministry's forecast.
Unemployment and population income
- The Economic Development Ministry expects the unemployment rate to remain at 2.3% until 2029.
- According to the forecast, real disposable incomes of the Russian population will grow by 0.8% in 2026, by 2.1% in 2027, and by 2.4% and 2.7% in 2028 and 2029, respectively.
Inflation
- The Economic Development Ministry raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 4% to 5.2%, and maintained it at 4% for the three-year period from 2027 to 2029.
GDP
- Russia's GDP growth rate by 2029 could reach 2.4% annualized, according to the forecast.
- This year, economic growth is expected to be 0.4%.
Gas production and prices
- The baseline forecast for gas production in Russia in 2026 has been reduced by 0.3% to 688.4 billion cubic meters, while pipeline gas exports have increased by 1.3% to 115.5 billion cubic meters, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have been maintained at 40.3 million tons.
- Gas production in 2026 will increase to 688.4 billion cubic meters (662.7 billion cubic meters in 2025), to 711.3 billion cubic meters in 2027, to 731.9 billion cubic meters in 2028, and to 750.4 billion cubic meters in 2029.
- Pipeline gas exports in 2026 will remain at the previous year's level of 115.5 billion cubic meters. m, in 2027 it will increase to 125.5 billion cubic meters, in 2028 - 125 billion cubic meters, in 2029 - 127.5 billion cubic meters.
- Average contract prices for gas (including CIS countries) are projected to be approximately $268.5 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026 (versus $253.9 in 2025).
- As for gas prices for non-CIS countries, according to the materials, they are expected to be $336.3 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026 (versus $324 in 2025).
- Wholesale gas prices for all consumers (both industrial and residential) in Russia will be adjusted to inflation by 9.1% starting July 1, 2027, and by 7% in 2028, which will be 3 percentage points (pp) higher than projected inflation.
- Growth of wholesale gas prices in Russia is planned at 9.6% for all consumers starting October 1, 2026.
- Moreover, the adjustment of tariffs for gas transportation through gas distribution networks in 2027 will be 2 pp higher than the adjustment of the wholesale component, reaching 11.1%.
- The average gas price in Europe in 2026 is expected to be $432 per 1,000 cubic meters, compared to $428 a year earlier due to the Middle East conflict and cold weather. However, a reduction in costs is expected through 2029, including due to the projected growth in global LNG production, the forecast notes.
Electricity tariffs
- Residential electricity tariffs will be adjusted by 11.3% from October 1, 2026, and by 8.6% from July 1, 2027.
- In 2028, the projected increase in residential electricity tariffs will be 9.1% from July 1, and by 5% from July 2029.
- Due to the implementation of major investment projects in the electric power industry, tariffs for electricity transmission services across the Unified National Electric Grid will be adjusted by 16% from October 2026, 14.7% from July 2027, 12% from July 2028, and 5.4% from July 2029.
Dollar exchange rate
- The Economic Development Ministry has revised its forecast for the average annual dollar exchange rate downwards to 81.5 rubles in 2026 from 92.2 rubles, and to 87.4 in 2027, with increases to 92 and 96 in 2027-2029.
Railway transportation
- Passenger rail transportation rates in the regulated segment will be adjusted by 5.9% from January 1, 2027, by 5.9% from 2028, and by 5.9% from 2029.
- According to the ministry's forecast, the adjustment of tariffs for long-distance passenger transportation infrastructure services will be 9.2% from January 1, 2027, 9.2% from January 1, 2028, and 9.2% from January 1, 2029.
- Freight rail tariffs will be adjusted by 8.3% from January 1, 2027, 6.0% from January 1, 2028, and 4.9% from January 1, 2029.
Exports and imports
- The Economic Development Ministry has improved its forecast for goods exports in 2026 from $431.5 billion to $442.2 billion, while adjusting it downwards for 2027 to $424.7 billion from the previously projected $462.2 billion.
- The ministry expects import volumes to reach $308.7 billion in 2026, $322.1 billion in 2027, and $336.9 billion and $353.3 billion in 2028 and 2029, respectively.
Oil prices, production, exports
- In its baseline scenario, the ministry expects the price of Brent crude oil to average $81 per barrel in 2026.
- At the same time, the ministry expects the price of Brent crude oil to decline between 2027 and 2029: to $65 per barrel in 2027, $63 in 2028, and $61 in 2029.
- In its baseline scenario, the ministry expects the price of Urals crude oil to average $59 per barrel in 2026, decreasing to $50 per barrel between 2027 and 2029.
- The ministry expects Russian oil exports to increase by 2.8% in its baseline scenario to 237.2 million tons in 2026, compared to 230.8 million tons in 2025.
- In 2027, according to the baseline scenario, oil exports will amount to 227.4 million tons, and in 2028 and 2029, 236.3 million tons.
- According to the conservative forecast scenario, oil exports will amount to 223.6 million tons in 2026, 213.8 million tons in 2027, 218.8 million tons in 2028, and 223.7 million tons in 2029.
- According to the baseline scenario, oil and condensate production in Russia in 2026 will remain almost at the 2025 level of 511 million tons, compared to 511.4 million tons the year before, while the estimate is lowered by 2.7% compared to the previous forecast.
- According to the baseline scenario, the ministry expects production to increase to 516 million tons in 2027, and to 525 million tons in 2028 and 2029.
- The ministry expects petroleum product exports in 2026 to decrease by 2.54% compared to 2025, reaching 122.6 million tons.
- The ministry estimates that petroleum product exports from the country will increase to 134 million tons in 2027 and 2028 (up 9.3% compared to 2026), but will fall to 130 million tons in 2029.