MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. Markets could lose 8-10 mln barrels of oil per day (mbd) with sustained tensions and an actual halt in shipping amid a large-scale military operation by the US and Israel against Iran, Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department, told TASS.
"According to Rystad Energy analysts’ forecast, if tensions persist and shipping actually stops markets could lose 8-10 mbd, and Brent price could gain another $20. Growth above $100 is possible in case of prolonged blockade," she said.
As trading opened in London on March 2, the price of Brent futures contracts for May delivery rose to $82.37 a barrel, up by 13% compared with February 27 closure, Levchenko said, adding that a correction to $77 was observed at some point, and that the very fact of the jump reflects the "military premium" level.
The expert believes the key factor now is not so much the physical deficit as the strait works, as much as the fear of it. "Until the threat of strikes on tankers and refineries persists, prices will remain in the $75-85 range with the potential to move into the triple-digit zone at any provocation," she stressed.
Risks for the gas market are assessed as even more acute due to Qatar’s vulnerability, she said, adding that Goldman Sachs experts predict a 130% surge in LNG prices in Asia and Europe amid a month-long blockade of the strait.
The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power. As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.