MOSCOW, February 25. /TASS/. Russia’s coal exports in 2026 may remain at last year’s level of 195-200 mln tons due to high competition with foreign suppliers in the Asia-Pacific region, Andrey Smirnov, stock market analyst at BCS World of Investments, told TASS.
The Asian coal market is currently experiencing a local reduction in output in China, as well as temporary supply disruptions in Australia due to flooding and plans to restrict production in Indonesia, he said.
"On the other hand, in the first quarter of 2026 demand has been traditionally rising in China amid long national holidays. Demand has been reviving in India. Thus, the prospects for a temporary increase in demand for Russian coal are seen. Amid strong competition with foreign suppliers in Asian-Pacific countries it may help maintain export volumes at the 2025 levels (195-200 mln tons)," the expert said.
Without substantial diplomatic progress, it is difficult to talk about increasing shipments or reducing discounts, Smirnov noted. "In its baseline scenario, the Finance Ministry projects export growth to 225 mln tons by 2030," he said.
Foreign analysts estimate the month-on-month decline in coal miners’ revenues from export transactions in January 2026 at 23%, largely due to a strong ruble and low prices for Russian coal, Smirnov said.
"Shipment volumes have probably decreased, but not significantly. Moreover, we expect the supply structure seen in late 2025 to persist," he said, adding that "a substantial growth of coal imports from Russia was observed from Turkey (+22% year-on-year), Vietnam (+30%), and South Korea (+40%) in 2025.".