WASHINGTON, July 31. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump has cornered himself by shortening his deadline for a Russia-Ukraine agreement on resolving the crisis to ten days, Mark Episkopos, Eurasia research fellow at the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, writes in an op-ed for the Responsible Statecraft online magazine.
"President Donald Trump’s decision to considerably shorten his 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to an unconditional ceasefire with Ukraine reflects his mounting frustration with what has proven to be a difficult peace process," he points out. "It should be recognized as part of any diplomatic point of departure that Russia will never agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Imposing deadlines in service of this goal, regardless of length, does nothing to assuage the underlying logic that Russia will never surrender its principal source of leverage - namely, its military advantage <...> - without substantial concessions from Kiev and the West," the expert elaborates.
In his view, the US has little to offer Russia that Moscow cannot achieve on its own, given how the conflict is unfolding.
Episkopos believes that for Trump, the only way out of the Ukraine crisis would be to view it as a confrontation between Russia and the West rather than between Russia and Ukraine. The expert notes that the US should use "creative diplomacy that takes into account the full scope of challenges and opportunities in US-Russia relations." As for Ukraine, the analyst is confident that "the starting point for negotiations should be guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and that no NATO troops will be stationed on Ukrainian soil, in exchange for Moscow’s reaffirmation that it has no objection to Ukraine’s pursuit of European Union membership."
"In short, the key to a successful negotiating posture on Ukraine is to refocus the talks away from immediate deconfliction to underlying strategic issues that both Moscow and Washington have vested interests in addressing," the expert concludes.
On July 14, Trump announced a 50-day deadline for an agreement on resolving the Ukraine conflict, adding that if no deal was reached, he would impose 100% tariffs on Moscow and its trading partners. On July 29, the US leader said he was reducing the deadline to 10-12 days. However, he added he wasn’t sure if the move would influence Russia’s position.