LONDON, May 20. /TASS/. Attempts by European nations to detain allegedly Russia-linked merchant ships in the Baltic Sea are heightening the risk of "non-linear warfare" between NATO and Russia, according to a report by the British maritime security firm Ambrey.
The assessment indicates that, in the near term, there will be "heightened maritime security risks, particularly around vessels transporting oil from or to Baltic ports, including the increased likelihood of arbitrary detentions, military posturing, and obstructions to freedom of navigation."
Ambrey warns that "should a future Russia-Ukraine peace agreement fail to address EU-UK sanctions on Russian hydrocarbon exports, Russia is likely to reallocate its security resources, previously concentrated on the Black Sea, to the Baltic region. This shift could amplify the prospects for non-linear warfare, with merchant shipping serving as a vector for coercive leverage and political signaling," the report states.
On May 13, the Estonian Navy, assisted by NATO aircraft, attempted to compel the Gabon-flagged vessel Jaguar to leave neutral international waters and proceed to an area suitable for detention. Estonia threatened to ram the ship, whose crew included four Russian citizens. Despite these threats, the vessel disregarded Tallinn’s demands and continued toward its final destination, the Russian port of Primorsk. Subsequently, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna claimed that a Russian fighter jet was airborne during the seizure attempt and that it allegedly violated Estonian airspace.
As Ambrey noted, the Jaguar vessel had been blacklisted by Britain on May 9 as part of a crackdown on Russia's "shadow fleet." London considers the vessel to be transporting Russian oil in breach of sanctions.
Later, on May 18, the Estonian Foreign Ministry reported that Russia had allegedly detained the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Green Admire as it exited the port of Sillamae. Quoting the Estonian Navy via the national radio portal ERR, Ambrey reports that the vessel entered Russian territorial waters, and its crew failed to respond to Russian warnings. On May 20, ERR announced that the Green Admire had left Russian waters and was heading to the port of Rotterdam. Ambrey interprets this incident as a possible retaliatory move by Russia against Western efforts to combat its "shadow fleet."