MOSCOW, October 18. /TASS/. "Proxy wars" of a new type when nuclear powers grant their "client" access to their information capabilities, technology and expertise, will become the prevailing form of conflict between great powers, a new report by the Valdai International Discussion Club said.
The report, entitled "Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies," notes that over past decades, major powers have been mostly involved in "a local cross-border confrontation, or an intervention by a superior force against a weaker state, or a war against a guerrilla force." However, events in Ukraine are cardinally different.
"The prevailing form of conflict between great powers will be proxy wars of a new type, namely, large conflicts in which a major nuclear power grants its client access to its information capabilities (satellite reconnaissance and targeting, communication infrastructure, etc.), as well as military technology and expertise, and, if necessary, carries out limited direct intervention in the conflict where it will not provoke nuclear escalation," the report’s authors forecast. "However, the threat of a direct military clash between great powers and nuclear war will persist and, perhaps, become even more acute than during the Cold War," they point out.
In relation to this, the experts think that "the key goal of diplomacy in this new world will be to develop a toolkit that will make it possible to endure decades of turbulence without nuclear bombardment." "This can only be achieved within the framework of rigorous foreign policy realism and the gradual development of rules and restrictions on competition," the report stresses.
In the expert opinion, the situation in Ukraine has demonstrated "the uselessness of past combat experience" and led to "the birth of armies equipped to fight a full-scale land war of the first half of the 21st century." "The armed forces that emerged in the post-Cold War period do not respond adequately to this new level of military threats. Significant quantitative growth of modern armies is required," the authors insist.
"The threat of a major war and politically motivated severance of economic ties will inevitably catalyze the diversification of the global financial system, leading to the gradual emergence of several independent industrial and technological growth centers with different potentials. Each such center will represent an alliance of states varying in power, pursuing the path of economic and industrial integration and aiming for expansion," the experts forecast.