MOSCOW, October 16. /TASS/. The future of the Gaza peace deal is unclear, Vladimir Putin meets with Syria’s interim leader, and the European Union plans to increase its military budget. These stories topped Thursday's headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Will Gaza deal fail as Israel, Hamas breach mutual obligations
Israel and Hamas continue to implement the peace plan, albeit with delays and frequent accusations against each other. Another incident occurred on October 15: the Palestinian movement handed over four bodies of hostages to Israel, but one of them turned out to be a Gaza resident. The mistake sparked outrage among Israeli authorities, returning the issue of the deal’s feasibility to the table. However, experts note that the international community's interest in resolving the sharp phase of the conflict outweighs the dissatisfaction of the parties.
Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that the result was predictable. Moreover, each of the parties approached the preparation of the agreement based on the idea that they "rather did not need it than needed it."
"Israel and Hamas are reacting more to outside pressure from the United States and regional states, which are deeply interested in formally ending the current phase of the conflict. Therefore, they leave room for maneuver at each stage, try to avoid binding measures or agreements and preserve the maximum number of options for exiting the deal by accusing the other side of undermining the agreements reached," he explained.
That said, the White House, apparently, considers the issue of exchanges closed, as it does not put pressure on either side to accelerate. Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev, in an interview with Izvestia, notes that Trump's threats were rather an attempt to frighten the opponents, "and, apparently, Hamas is also well aware of this."
At the same time, according to him, in the event of a continued disregard of Trump's wishes, Hamas may indeed face consequences - although the "use of force" in this case will not be directly related to the armed forces of the United States. "Most likely, the United States will deploy full-scale military and economic assistance to Israel, support the technical strengthening of the IDF, but will not involve its own military personnel, who are already slated to be deployed in a coordination center they are establishing on Israeli soil," Tokoldoshev concluded.
However, according to Lukyanov, the current settlement vector rather reflects the desire and willingness of the countries participating in the negotiation process to recognize the establishment of a new status quo in the region, while the motivation of Hamas and Israel is related to attempts not to fall into international isolation.
"Regardless of Israel saying that it is ready for self-isolation, its society and economy are not ready for this, and, therefore, the cabinet of ministers is under serious pressure both from within, from diasporas and lobbying pro-Israel groups, including in the United States. It is quite difficult for the cabinet to ignore these demands," he added.
In this case, Hamas, no matter how much it claims to have strong and uncontested control on the ground, has lost its allies and faces the willingness of regional states to definitively separate the Palestinian issue from the topic of the movement’s future. And this forces it to participate in the negotiations, so as not to be completely and totally isolated here and now, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Importance of first meeting between President Putin, Syria’s interim president in Moscow
Syria’s new authorities seeks to renew relations with Russia, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa said during the first-ever meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 16.
The Russian leader emphasized "exclusively friendly" ties with Syria since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Soviet Union and that nation.
The recognition of Syria’s new authorities actually happened some time ago, even though not everyone in Russia was happy with it, so it was somewhat "incomplete," noted Kirill Semyonov, an expert from the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
The Syrian economy requires investments, and al-Sharaa’s visit is an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its presence in energy, transport, and ports through concessions and joint ventures, but only if the military presence is maintained, believes Nikolay Sukhov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
In Sukhov’s view, the status of Russia’s military facilities was the key issue at these talks. "Moscow needs a foothold in the Mediterranean for logistics and power projection there and in Africa. Damascus needs a new legal and financial framework for cooperation, not one associated with Assad’s legacy," he explained. Sukhov does not rule out that Russia could help form a new Syrian army from Assad’s former opponents. "Damascus wants to enhance its combat capabilities and may coordinate with Russia on interaction with Turkey and the conflict with Israel."
According to Semyonov, it was decided to retain the military bases long ago, but it is their efficiency that matters for Moscow; it is also necessary to determine whether both facilities are still required.
Sukhov believes that the visit of Syria’s interim leader to Moscow is a strategic message both domestically in Syria and externally as an additional security guarantee for the new authorities. Moscow supports the state-building efforts of Syria’s leadership and may even help facilitate their reconciliation with the Kurds and Druze, Semyonov concluded.
Ahead of the meeting, Reuters reported that al-Sharaa allegedly would demand that Russia extradite Bashar Assad. Sukhov has ruled out such a scenario. "It is more likely to be a detailed discussion about the assets the new authorities are interested in," he noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: European Union aims to increase military budget five-fold
On Thursday, October 16, the European Commission (EC) plans to unveil a strategy for implementing the program to develop the EU’s defense capabilities, Readiness 2030. It includes an updated concept titled the "European Drone Defense Initiative." Brussels intends to boost the European Union’s military budget more than five-fold within the framework of the financial plan for 2028-2034, to 131 billion euros.
Nadezhda Arbatova, head of the Department of European Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the comprehensive plan for implementing the program to strengthen the European Union’s defense capabilities is a consistent step toward a goal outlined in the EU White Paper for European Defense. To achieve this goal, Brussels believes Europe must act swiftly and jointly, gradually forming a defense potential capable of real-time responses to security threats. This mainly concerns enhancing the EU’s combat readiness on the eastern flank amid the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine.
"Discussing the roadmap at the upcoming EU summit will focus on specific issues of closing critical gaps in the EU’s defense potential and its support for Ukraine. It seems that this top-level meeting is intended to compensate for Brussels’ dissatisfaction with the outcome of the EU summit in Copenhagen on October 1-2. Convened to reach consensus on key priorities of rearming Europe, for the EU leadership it turned into an unpleasant display of competition for influence, political disputes, and hidden agendas that hinder strengthening Europe’s defense potential," the expert said.
In her view, it is also notable that the roadmap is being presented the day after a meeting of NATO defense ministers and a session of the contact group on Ukraine in the "Ramstein format." This may be regarded as a move toward the Europeanization of the transatlantic partnership, which requires not only developing joint NATO-EU mechanisms but also steady political and financial commitments from the US’ European allies.
Izvestia: Russia, India adjust structure of trade
Russia and India have managed to adjust the structure of mutual trade: consumer goods have been added to energy resources. At the same time, the parties have fully resolved the problem with payments, Akashdeep Singh, president of the Indian Business Council, told Izvestia. That said, the country will continue to purchase oil from the Russian Federation, which has traditionally been the core of commercial relations between the countries. India has started paying for them in yuan, but the ruble is still used in most transactions.
"It must be noted that the trade turnover between Russia and India is extremely lopsided. By expanding its exports to Russia, India can offset imbalances in mutual trade and reduce the large balance of rupees in our country," Yevgeny Smirnov, head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management, told Izvestia.
Transactions are carried out by direct payments in rubles and rupees. However, the expert community notes that there are still some difficulties.
"In particular, the speed and continuity of mutual settlements in trade are limited by the fact that the payment systems and banking systems of Russia and India are still not fully compatible. The key problem is challenges in converting Indian rupees received by Russian exporters, since they cannot be exchanged for other reserve currencies or, for example, transferred offshore. In addition, the Indians are concerned about the risk of secondary sanctions by the United States if they actively support such payments," Smirnov said.
At the same time, Russian energy products are still the main component in the trade turnover with India. According to the Kpler analytical agency, in September, Moscow exported 1.6 million barrels per day, thus maintaining its position as the largest supplier to the republic. Russian oil accounted for 34% of India's total hydrocarbon imports, as, with discounts, it remains the most cost-effective type of raw material. Singh noted that a very simple logic is in place here, as India, above all, thinks about itself, its national security, consumers and relations with various countries.
Vedomosti: China prepared for trade war
The problem of deflation becomes even more acute for Beijing under the conditions of trade uncertainty. That said, the tariff war risks resulting in greater losses for the US, which raises the possibility of successful talks, experts, polled by Vedomosti, said.
The experts note that along with global uncertainty, the general cooling of the economy and low consumer demand, the long-term decline in the real estate market also plays an important role in the deflation factor. More than 25% of the country’s GDP comes from this sector, analyst Yelena Kozhukhova from Veles Capital pointed out. It traditionally was the largest consumer of steel, cement, equipment and services, added Kirill Lysenko, sovereign and regional rating analyst at the Expert RA agency.
The experts emphasized the high level of stability of the Chinese economy. The US may be hurt by the tariff war to a greater extent, believes economist Yegor Susin. This boosts the probability of successful talks between Beijing and Washington because both sides realize the destructive nature of new tariffs, explains Nikolay Novik, deputy director of the Center of the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. At the same time, he noted the high reliance of the Chinese economy on geo-economic factors and foreign policy due to its orientation toward exports.
Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Yekaterina Novikova told the newspaper that in the event of the tariff war, Europe may end up being a losing party given the debts of European economies and the impossibility of obtaining cheap resources for the further development of the industry.
"China is not only the largest exporter and manufacturer but is also a holder of the US state debt, so Beijing has powerful levers of pressure. So far it is rather the US businesses that are losing revenue due to the tariffs as they have to pay for customs," Susin pointed out. He added that had Beijing not been confident in its economy, it wouldn’t have escalated. That said, China understands that the uncertainty factor in the global economy is becoming permanent. In the future, competing by using bans and tariffs will become even more common, Susin believes.
The interdependence of the US and China remains high, even though in 10-20 years it may weaken due to efforts by both countries, said analyst Kirill Kononov from BCS - World of Investments. Kozhukhova notes that in the event the sides do not reach an agreement, competition in hi-tech sectors, such as IT, may increase. And China’s IT sector may become more independent as the country has rare-earth metals, while for US companies this may mean bigger problems.
The tariff war may be a chance for China to secure the yuan as an international currency, increase exports to Asian markets and improve relations with India, believes Novikova.
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