MOSCOW, September 20. /TASS/. An armed conflict breaks out in Nagorno-Karabakh, the prisoner swap will not improve US-Iranian relations and Ukraine’s UN status can be disputed. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Trans-Caucasus finds itself on verge of third Karabakh war
Yesterday afternoon, the Azerbaijani army began shelling targets in Karabakh, issuing a statement about the onset of "local anti-terrorist measures." According to Baku, the "measures" involved "the use of high-precision weapons on the frontline and in the rear" of territory controlled by the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
Given the previous phases of the conflict, it is impossible to say what the potential scale of the current armed standoff will be, says Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). According to him, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are dissatisfied with the way the situation has unfolded following the second Karabakh war in 2020. "If the current escalation drags out, Baku may try for a full takeover of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the event everything quiets down, Azerbaijan’s actions may be classified as the continuation of the ‘salami-slicing tactics’ used earlier - a gradual takeover of increasingly more districts, strategic locations, and a transport blockade with the goal of getting Armenia to conclude a peace treaty on Azerbaijani terms as soon as possible," the expert thinks.
Azerbaijan is now attempting to put an end to the conflict and win back the 1991 undemarcated Soviet administrative borders, says political scientist Artur Atayev. He explains that Baku took advantage of a convenient political situation where Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already distanced himself from Russia but has not yet ensured support from France and the US. The expert thinks that Russia’s current stance, aiming to find a diplomatic solution, is the most pragmatic one because it is consistent with its historical role in Trans-Caucasus.
The lengths Azerbaijan is ready to go to will depend on how the US and EU react, a diplomatic source told Vedomosti. If the reaction is harsh, it may cease combat, probably, being that the operation was branded as "local measures" in the event of just such a scenario.
Vedomosti: US-Iran ties unlikely to thaw following unfreezing of assets, prisoner swap
Five US citizens of Iranian descent are returning home after being held in Iran while the US has released five Iranian citizens in return, with two of them already in Iran and three, according to Al Jazeera, deciding to remain in Qatar where the swap took place. The US has also approved unfreezing Iran's assets in South Korean banks (the Bank of Korea, Woori Bank and the Industrial Bank of Korea) to the tune of $6 bln. Iran will be able to use these funds for humanitarian purchases only, for example, for agricultural products or pharmaceuticals. Qatar mediated the talks and is the deal’s guarantor.
According to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program concluded in 2015, or the nuclear deal, Iran agreed to reduce its nuclear program in return for the UN and Western countries lifting sanctions against it. In 2018, then US President Donald Trump announced the US’ withdrawal from the deal and imposed new sanctions.
Given the current geopolitical situation, the revival of the nuclear deal in any format seems highly unlikely, said Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, in a conversation with Vedomosti. The expert thinks that the agreement on the prisoner swap was a political move by the US to slow down Iran’s active rapprochement with Russia and China. Additionally, the deal was a signal of sorts to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has on a number of occasions said he is ready to deliver a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Vasilyev explained that Washington is trying to prevent this from happening because these threats compel Tehran to move closer to Moscow and Beijing.
The prisoner swap does not have an exclusively humanitarian nature, but it is still not enough for the potential resumption of talks on reviving the nuclear deal, says Russian International Affairs Council expert Alexey Naumov. According to the expert, neither Tehran, nor Washington are certain about the possibility of constructive dialogue. The Biden administration, in addition to certain gains, will suffer some reputational damage because certain US political circles will accuse it of making concessions to Iran. According to Naumov, the decision on the swap was above all an attempt to "test the waters" and soften bilateral relations.
The prisoner swap is unlikely to impact US domestic policy, thinks political scientist Yan Veselov. "This event won’t become an important topic in the upcoming presidential election either, as foreign policy rarely plays a big role," he says. However, this event creates a precedent when within the framework of a prisoner swap, a country may demand and achieve at least a partial lifting of sanctions, the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine’s UN status may also be disputed
Having arrived in New York for the UN General Assembly, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has urged that Russia be expelled from the international organization. At the same time, ex-Ukrainian Permanent Representative to the UN Vladimir Yelchenko said that this can be done by disputing Russia’s legal status. However, Ukraine’s own status may be disputed as well, because its admission to the UN in 1991 was automatic, without a vote at the General Assembly, experts say.
That said, Oleg Barabanov, program director at the Valdai Discussion Club, told the newspaper that Zelensky’s proposal to expel Russia from the UN Security Council has already been voiced a number of times by US representatives, who themselves have admitted the difficulty of getting this done. However, if US President Joe Biden’s statements on expanding the UN Security Council do not remain just talk, talk that has been going on for the last twenty years already, it is possible that Russia and China won’t veto this idea. As a result, for example, Brazil and India may join the Security Council while Germany and Japan are likely to be left out. In this case, questions will also emerge on vesting the newcomers with veto power, with subsequent discussions around this issue triggering the further review of decisions made aiming to limit Russia’s influence, Barabanov explained.
According to him, the Kiev regime also insists that Russia purportedly replaced the Soviet Union at the UN illegitimately, because in late 1991-early 1992 it merely sent a letter to the organization requesting official membership which was not disputed either by the Security Council or by the General Assembly, so it was granted. Later, the General Assembly voted on Serbia’s membership. "However, it is necessary to understand that also in 1991, both Ukraine and Belarus also merely sent letters to the UN secretary general, notifying of their sovereign status and name change, something which the General Assembly also did not vote on. Therefore, this issue can be raised, if so desired," the expert pointed out. Under these circumstances, he thinks that the most viable option is depriving Russia of the right to participate in the operations of the General Assembly itself, which its participants, who previously repeatedly supported anti-Russian resolutions, may approve, following the mechanism activated against South Africa over its apartheid system at the time. However, the final outcome would be quite scandalous, because Russia will continue working at the UN Security Council but won’t be able to do so within the framework of the General Assembly, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Hungary to keep embargo on Ukrainian grain in place 'as long as necessary'
The embargo on Ukrainian grain imports to Hungary will be in place for the foreseeable future - it will last for "as long as necessary," the press service of the Hungarian government told Izvestia. Earlier, Kiev filed a suit against Hungary, Poland and Slovakia over their decision to renew the ban on grain imports despite the European Commission’s decision. Experts think that the EU is unlikely to substantially impact Eastern European countries, particularly, Poland. According to their assessments, the three countries will manage to overcome Brussels’ restrictions and keep the embargo on Ukrainian agricultural products.
The Slovak government made the right move by bringing back the embargo, Peter Marcek, former member of the National Council of the Slovak Republic, told Izvestia.
"I think that Slovakia, Hungary and Poland were right to renew the embargo. Ukraine, by filing a complaint with the WTO, acted improperly," he noted. "I think that the current government will continue to support Ukraine but the new government which will come in two weeks (Slovakia will hold snap parliamentary elections on September 30 - Izvestia) may change its attitude toward the Kiev regime, including military aid. That is, Bratislava’s activity on arms supplies will decrease," he explained.
That said, immediate sanctions on the part of the EU should not be expected, Dmitry Bunevich, aide to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, told Izvestia. "One should not overestimate the European Commission’s ability to influence Poland. Of course, it does have an influence but we see that Poland has been in conflict with Brussels on many issues - political ones, freedom of speech, the independence of the court system and so on. The European Commission is putting the pressure on but has not found a sure way of bringing Poland to heel. As for grain, the Poles may simply unilaterally block it, and that’s it," the expert thinks.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Oil exports from Russia hit three-month high in September
Western experts note an increase in the export of oil from Russia this month, forecasting growing oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget in September versus previous months. The price of oil globally is being propped up by Saudi Arabia and growing demand for energy resources worldwide. In the near future, the price of a barrel of standard grade oil may surpass $100. In recent months, Russian oil has been trading above the price cap of $60 per barrel imposed by the West.
Oil prices may soon surpass $100/barrel, the Times newspaper quoted experts as saying. According to Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB), it is "highly likely" that the price of Brent crude may reach triple digits.
According to Citigroup analysts, such factors as weather and geopolitics may push oil above the $100 mark in the short term, but the price of a barrel will be lower by the end of the year. Per their forecasts, a barrel of Brent crude in 4Q will be $84 on average while the year will end with oil prices somewhere in the neighborhood of $78-82 per barrel.
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