Izvestia: NATO plans to beef up its eastern flank, avoids direct conflict with Russia
One of the most important practical outcomes of the North Atlantic alliance's unprecedented meeting is that NATO plans to fortify its eastern flank. In addition to the 40,000 troops now stationed in Eastern Europe, the US-led bloc plans to deploy additional battlegroups to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Meanwhile, NATO reacted to Vladimir Zelensky's request to deploy tanks and aircraft to Ukraine with a restrained refusal. Western countries are continuing to put pressure on Moscow with additional sanctions and are now proposing to exclude Russia from global discussion platforms. US President Joe Biden came up with the idea to exclude Russia from the G20, Izvestia writes.
The statement by Biden, which was published by the White House after the NATO summit, said that the members of the US-led Western military bloc intend to provide additional equipment, including air defense systems.
Meanwhile, NATO members did not respond to Zelensky’s request to transfer weapons to Ukraine. "Initially, it was not a Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but a confrontation between Russia and the West," Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov told Izvestia, explaining the alliance’s restraint towards Ukraine. "There are certain limits that apply to everyone. Everyone understands that NATO should not enter into a direct confrontation with Moscow. Military assistance is welcome, but participation in an armed conflict is already considered unacceptable," he noted.
According to Russian politicians, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is beneficial for the United States. "It is fundamentally important for the United States to use the Ukrainian card to fight against Russia," First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Dmitry Novikov told Izvestia. "The situation is very favorable for the United States when they successfully pitted two countries against each other that were the largest republics of the USSR." That said, Novikov believes that the Russian military operation in Ukraine is "a forced but necessary measure."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia seeks to strengthen its currency by demanding payment for gas in rubles
Russia's decision to switch to ruble payments with unfriendly countries for gas supplies surprised Europe and Japan. Some countries have already expressed their readiness to switch to the Russian currency, while others see problems in this transition. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta they believe that there will be no technical obstacles to replacing the euro with rubles in settlements. The barriers are mostly political, and some countries may strive to break away from the ruble.
The decision to move to rubles in gas payments has introduced a new element of uncertainty to the already turbulent European gas market, the newspaper noted. Klaus Ernst, Chairman of the Bundestag Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy, said earlier that EU nations might legally pay for Russian gas supplies in rubles, but this would force them to circumvent their own sanctions. He thinks that this could lead to a boycott of Russian energy carriers.
Analysts, on the other hand, pointed out that the Kremlin's statement simply relates to altering the payment currency, and that the general conditions of the contracts will remain the same. On the whole, experts told the newspaper they see no problems with the transition to the new payment system.
"A Russian gas embargo is unrealistic in the foreseeable future since there are just no free volumes of fuel in the world that could substitute Russian quantities," Director of the National Energy Institute Sergey Pravosudov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. As for payment in rubles, theoretically there are no problems with this, he believes, the issues are purely technical.
Senior analyst at Esperio Anton Bykov sees positive things for the Russian financial market and for the ruble. "By the end of the week the Bank of Russia and the Finance Ministry should present options for such operations, and in April either the transition happens or a collective demarche from the EU, which will launch a cyclical crisis," he told the newspaper. "This could be economic suicide, because then, energy prices will skyrocket for a short time to record highs for oil at $160-180 per barrel of Brent oil and $4,000-4,500 per 1,000 cubic meters for gas," the expert warned.
Izvestia: Russian oil might refocus supplies towards Asia
Against the background of the United States having slapped a ban on Russian oil imports, deliveries to EU countries are in jeopardy in the foreseeable future. Some analysts predict that roughly 3 mln barrels per day of Russian oil and petroleum products will be removed from the global market, accounting for about 3% of world production. However, there is another possibility: a large-scale reorientation of supplies. According to Izvestia, Russian oil could be exported to Asian countries, while Middle Eastern producers will shift to the European market.
Despite the embargo, Russian oil exports to the US continue and even increased. For example, in the week of March 12-18, the US bought 70,000 barrels of Russian oil per day, 80% more than the previous week. The position is more complicated in the European Union, where European countries have so far avoided placing an embargo on Russian raw materials imports.
President of the Institute of Energy and Finance Marcel Salikhov noted that oil supplies will be reoriented either way under the existing restrictions. "China and India are obvious candidates for increased flows. In terms of quality, Russian oil is perfect for China's refineries, capable of replacing up to 3 mln barrels per day of comparable quality crude oil imported by China from other countries. This solution, however, will necessitate China's readiness to engage in the anticipated conflict with Western countries. Another option is India, which is already boosting its imports of Russian oil - the major reason for this is record discounts, which make it possible for a significant increase in buyer profitability in oil refining," the expert said.
"Under a pessimistic scenario, Russia would need to redirect 2.5 mln barrels of crude, or more than half of last year's exports," VYGON Consulting’s Ivan Timonin told the newspaper.
According to the expert, the search for new markets in this case will not be a problem. Other suppliers will be also forced to redirect their flows to Europe to replace Russia, which, in turn, will free up additional volumes in Asia. "However, reorienting the Russian oil industry to the east will take some time," he added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China, India decide to find common position on Ukraine
On Friday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will arrive in New Delhi. The Indian media described the visit as unexpected, given that the Chinese top diplomat had denounced New Delhi's activities in Kashmir the day before, while in Pakistan. According to experts, China wants to normalize relations with its neighbor when the US and its allies are increasing pressure on Beijing, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The border war, which erupted following a clash in the Himalayas two years ago, is an impediment to Indian-Chinese rapprochement. Beijing may want to turn the page and prepare the groundwork for a forthcoming BRICS meeting, which is planned in China this fall.
Neither China nor India have spoken out against Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Russia refers to them as friendly countries and expects their support. However, a confrontation in the Himalayas is affecting relations between Beijing and Delhi. If Wang Yi's talks in New Delhi go well, it will clear the way for high-level India-China contacts. This year, China presides over the BRICS organization, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. By tradition, it should host the association’s heads of state during the summits. This means that Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and other leaders of the "five" can fly to China, the newspaper writes.
Associate professor at the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University Boris Volkhonsky told the newspaper, "On the eve of the BRICS summit, China is attempting to strengthen its relations with India. Obviously, China prefers to hold the meeting in person rather than virtually. The material foundation for improving Indian-Chinese relations is strong. The two countries' trade is booming. Moreover, Xi and Modi have met 18 times. However, no meetings have taken place since the event in the Himalayas. India, and China all share a common denominator. They have not denounced Russia on the Ukrainian issue, instead, they have called for a negotiated settlement."
Kommersant: Moldova maintains difficult neutrality amid conflict in Ukraine
Moldova has remained neutral during the Ukrainian conflict, refusing to join anti-Russian sanctions while also refusing to allow anything that may be perceived as dual-use products to transit through its territory and maintaining direct contacts with Tiraspol. Experts told Kommersant they believe that this is the only right tactic.
Chisinau, which, together with Kiev and Tbilisi, forms the backbone of the Eastern Partnership (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine), has not joined any sanctions imposed by the West against Russia after the Russian armed forces entered Ukraine. Even Western countries supported this position, including the United States.
"All Western diplomats and leaders who have visited Chisinau in recent weeks have publicly and privately endorsed the position of neutrality. Nobody pushed us to take tough actions," a source in the Moldovan government told Kommersant.
Sources in the Moldovan government told the newspaper that the Moldovan authorities have taken a principled position - nothing is delivered through the territory of the republic towards Ukraine that could even be considered dual-use products, not even bulletproof vests to Ukraine. This causes a negative reaction from the Ukrainian authorities, the source said, but Moldova does not want to make concessions on such issues.
"This is a very surprising response to a dramatic, catastrophic challenge. This gives reason to believe that the topic of neutrality will become the basis of the Moldovan domestic political agenda," one of the leaders of the Civic Congress party Mark Tkaciuk believes.
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