MOSCOW, March 30. /TASS/. A surge in oil prices to $200 per barrel could push Europe into a recession, during which the region’s leading industrial countries would seek to preserve their domestic industry, Candidate of Economic Sciences and Associate Professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Nikolay Gaponenko told TASS.
"If this happens, exporters will receive enormous revenues. Asia – primarily South Korea, Thailand and India – will find itself at the epicenter of the crisis, with falling markets, an inflated deficit and capital flight. Europe will be balancing on the edge of recession, trying to preserve at least some industry," Gaponenko said.
He clarified that, according to data from Goldman Sachs, a sustained 10% increase in oil prices reduces eurozone growth by 0.2 percentage points and adds 0.3 percentage points to inflation. "Behind them (the figures - TASS) are factories that stop operating and people who lose their jobs. The German IFO Institute gives an even gloomier forecast. Thus, if the situation continues to worsen, Germany’s economic growth in 2026-2027 will fall to 0.6-0.8%. For a country that serves as Europe’s economic locomotive, this is not a slowdown – it is almost a complete halt," he explained.
Gaponenko stressed that under the worst-case scenario for Europe, its economy would not collapse, but would face a "long and painful stress." "With high probability – new waves of layoffs at industrial enterprises, street protests and an increasingly deep split between the north and the south," he said.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the administration of US President Donald Trump is considering a scenario under which oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel.