MOSCOW, March 5. /TASS/. A struggle for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, including those from Russia, may emerge on global gas markets amid the potential prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in shipments from Qatar, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club Alexey Grivach told TASS.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that given the European Union’s intention to completely abandon Russian gas, Russia itself could initiate an early withdrawal from the European market and redirect supplies toward other, more interested buyers.
According to TASS calculations, Russia ranked second after the United States in the value of the European Union’s LNG imports in 2025. Its share stood at 16.1% (or 16.2% of the total value of LNG and pipeline gas purchases). In terms of supply volumes, Russia accounted for about 14% of LNG imports to the EU (12.1% of the total gas supply volume, including pipeline deliveries).
According to the expert, statements about the possible reorientation of exports likely refer primarily to LNG supplies. It is physically impossible to redirect pipeline gas so quickly and secure more advantageous positions.
"On the other hand, verbal interventions directed at Brussels in the current situation will not be unnecessary. The situation with LNG is also ambiguous. On the one hand, a fight for it may begin on the markets if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a prolonged period and especially if liquefied gas production in Qatar suffers serious physical damage. In that case, many buyers in Asia will be looking for alternatives, including from Russia," Grivach said.
He noted that the key issue in such a scenario would be the willingness of countries in the Asia-Pacific region to conclude long-term contracts. According to the expert, only such agreements make the reorientation of supplies economically viable and sustainable.
"The second point concerns the existing long-term LNG contracts from Yamal. Some of them were signed with foreign shareholders — they will likely decide for themselves what to do, others were signed with buyers in Europe, who are currently looking for grounds to terminate them without paying penalties. The two main such contracts are with Spain’s Naturgy and Germany’s SEFE (formerly a Gazprom subsidiary in Germany — TASS). Together they amount to 5 mln tons per year. That is not insignificant, but it is not that much either," the expert added.
At the end of January, the EU Council finally approved a ban on imports of Russian LNG starting January 1, 2027, and pipeline gas starting September 30, 2027. However, restrictions will begin to be introduced earlier. Imports of LNG under short-term contracts will be banned from April 25, 2026, while short-term contracts for pipeline gas deliveries must be concluded by June 17, 2026. The corresponding regulation entered into force on February 2, 2026.
The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power.
As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.