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Inflation could accelerate if oil prices do not recover to forecast levels — regulator

The Bank of Russia, taking into account global market trends, lowered its oil price forecast for the next three years

MOSCOW, February 13. /TASS/. Oil prices may create certain risks and speed up inflation if they fail to recover to the levels that the Bank of Russia set in its baseline scenario, the regulator’s Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

"Significant risks are associated with oil prices. If they don't recover from current levels to those we included in the baseline scenario this could accelerate inflation through the foreign exchange channel," she told a press conference.

In 2025, oil supply grew at an accelerated rate, resulting in a global market surplus, Nabiullina noted, adding that this, in turn, puts pressure on prices. "For Russian exporters, the situation is further complicated by sanctions restrictions," she stressed.

Against this backdrop, the Bank of Russia, taking into account global market trends, lowered its oil price forecast for the next three years. "Accordingly, the forecast for export value volumes was also adjusted," the regulator’s chief stated.

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