MOSCOW, February 9. /TASS/. A sharp decrease in the area of ice in the Barents Sea in winter in the early 21st century, accompanied by strong warming in the Arctic, paradoxically led to an increase in the number of cold winters in the European part of Russia, Director of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (the Russian Academy of Sciences), Head of the Climatology Laboratory at the Institute of Geography (the Russian Academy of Sciences), Academician Vladimir Semenov told TASS.
"A sharp decrease in the area of ice in the Barents Sea in winter in the early 21st century has led, paradoxically (since it is accompanied by strong warming in the Arctic), to an increase in cold winters in the European part of Russia," he said.
Cold weather of the kind occurs most often "precisely from the second half of January to the end of February," and this effect is clearly seen in the temperature anomalies statistics over recent two decades, he said, which is due to "anomalies in atmospheric circulation caused by a reduced area of ice, and it is contributing to the influx of cold Arctic air masses into the European part of Russia."
While commenting on the current frosts, the scientist noted that statistics have the concept of a return period of exceeding the threshold: "Quite possible, the frosty temperatures these days correspond to values that are observed over a long period of time about once every 20 years."
The regular average daily temperature the last 30 years for January - February is about minus 6 degrees, which is about minus 10 degrees at night and minus 2-3 during the day. At the same time, the climate is getting warmer, he continued: "In the 1960s-1990s, it was about 3 degrees colder."
As for the future, the scientist said, numerical experiments with climate models show that given further shrinking of ice in the Barents and Kara Seas in winter, "circulation anomalies should be reversed, and winters, on the contrary, will become abnormally warm."
"We may expect this in 10-15 years if the ice continues melting at the same rate as it did in the beginning of the century," he added.
It is too early to speak about effects of the recent cold weather and snow on plants and animals, since winter continues, the scientist said, noting he could "not see anything extraordinary in the observed anomalies."
"We have seen worse frosts in the recent past, and snowy winters are also not uncommon," the academician said.