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IMF maintains China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.8%

According to the report, in the Q2 2025, China’s economic growth slowed to 4.2%, compared with 6.1% in the Q1

WASHINGTON, October 14. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept unchanged its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2025 at 4.8%, according to the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

The 2026 forecast also remains unchanged from the July estimate: the IMF expects China’s GDP growth rate to slow further to 4.2%. At the same time, experts from the financial institution noted that China has managed to offset the negative impact of escalating trade tensions with the United States earlier this year.

In the Q4 2025, China’s GDP growth rate is expected to reach 3.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points below the IMF’s July projection.

According to the report, in the Q2 2025, China’s economic growth slowed to 4.2%, compared with 6.1% in the Q1. The IMF attributed this decline to a decrease in exports.

At the same time, analysts noted that China managed to partially offset reduced trade volumes with the United States by increasing exports to Eurozone countries and to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A contributing factor was the depreciation of the yuan against most other currencies, except for the US dollar.

The report emphasized that this time, the decoupling of trade chains between China and the United States occurred more rapidly than in 2018 and 2019. A key difference from the policies of President Donald Trump’s first administration is that Washington’s current trade restrictions are now aimed at a broader range of trading partners, rather than exclusively at China.

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