WASHINGTON, July 29. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for US GDP growth upward, increasing the projection for the current year by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9%, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 2%, according to the July update to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report.
According to the report, in the United States, where the tariff rates have been set lower than initially announced on April 2, and financial conditions are easing, economic growth is now expected to reach 1.9% in 2025. This is 0.1 percentage points higher than the April forecast, partly offset by a faster-than-expected decline in private sector demand and reduced immigration.
According to the forecast, economic growth in the US will accelerate slightly in 2026, reaching 2%, driven by a short-term boost associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill, a reference to the government spending and tax reduction bill signed by US President Donald Trump in early July, which primarily focuses on corporate investment tax incentives. This figure is 0.3 percentage points higher than projected in April, the IMF analysts noted. According to their estimates, the measures set forth in the bill will increase the US budget deficit by approximately 1.5 percentage points of GDP in 2026, although revenue from tariffs will offset about half of that increase.
On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on goods from 185 countries and territories. Universal tariffs of 10% took effect on April 5, while country-specific tariffs were implemented on April 9. On the same day, the US President also announced a 90-day suspension of a portion of retaliatory tariffs, which the White House explained was tied to ongoing trade negotiations. During this period, a universal tariff rate of 10% remains in force. On July 7, Trump signed an executive order postponing the deadline for concluding trade agreements from July 9 to August 1.