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OPEC+ to maintain moderate deficit on oil market in Q1 2024 — expert

Saudi Arabia accounts for the main portion of OPEC+ nations’ oil output reduction in Q1 2024, which will totally exceed 2 mln barrels per day, Sergey Kaufman noted

MOSCOW, December 1. /TASS/. OPEC+ countries’ decision to deepen voluntary oil reduction in Q1 2024 will maintain moderate deficit on the oil market, Finam Financial Group analyst Sergey Kaufman said.

"The move by OPEC+ will highly likely maintain moderate deficit in the first quarter. It will not reach millions of barrels per day, though when there is no way to fill the oil market deficit will keep prices at $80 [per barrel]. This is a comfortable level that OPEC+ is protecting again," he said during Finam Invesment live broadcast. Meanwhile, OPEC+ countries did nothing for the oil price to surge to $100 per barrel, which the market expected, Kaufman added.

Saudi Arabia accounts for the main portion of OPEC+ nations’ oil output reduction in Q1 2024, which will totally exceed 2 mln barrels per day, the expert noted. However, this cut is an extension of reduction that has been in force since summer, he said.

Meanwhile, the agreement on Brazil’s joining OPEC+ cooperation starting January 2024 is important in the long run, Kaufman said, adding that the country may boost oil production in the coming 5-10 years.

Among large oil-producing countries, the US, Guyana and sanctioned Iran and Venezuela (Iran and Venezuela formally belong to OPEC+, though they do not participate in the output reduction agreement) remain outside the OPEC+ deal, the expert noted. "Unfortunately, Guyana will hardly be taken to OPEC+, and it will be one of the global output growth drivers," he said. "In Guyana, the key project is between three companies now, Exxonmobil, Chevron and the Chinese CNOOC. The Americans are in charge in the project, which is why output reduction or any restrictions are not on the agenda there," Kaufman added.

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