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Oil demand will recover in 2022 after crisis — IEA

According to IEA experts, global oil demand will increase by 5.4 mln barrels per day in 2021

MOSCOW, June 11. /TASS/. Global oil consumption will recover to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022, for the first time exceeding the mark of 100 mln barrels per day (bpd), according to the June report of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In this scenario, OPEC+ oil exporters will have to loosen production restrictions to meet demand, the agency noted.

According to IEA experts, global oil demand will increase by 5.4 mln bpd in 2021, and by another 3.1 mln bpd in 2022. Oil consumption will continue to recover and, if no changes occur, by the end of 2022 it will reach 100.6 mln bpd, the report said. Thus, the world will return to the pre-crisis level of demand.

The IEA emphasizes that oil reserves in developed countries for the first time since the beginning of the crisis in the spring of 2020 fell below the five-year average. Since July 2020, when global oil reserves reached their all-time high of 3.22 bln barrels, they have declined at an average rate of 1.1 mln bpd.

At the same time, active recovery in oil demand will spur oil-producing countries to increase supply; in 2022, supplies from non-OPEC+ countries will grow by 1.6 mln barrels per day (bpd) against 0.7 mln bpd in 2021, the report said.

The IEA believes that satisfying the growing oil consumption will not be a problem. Even after production recovers by 2 mln bpd in May-July, the countries of the OPEC+ agreements still have 6.9 mln bpd of unused effective capacity, the report said. If sanctions against Iran are lifted, it will return 1.4 mln bpd to the market in a short time.

The United State will lead in terms of the supply recovery in 2022, accounting for over 0.9 mln bpd of supply growth. Canada, Brazil, and Norway will also increase oil supplies. If oil sanctions are lifted, Iran will be able to increase oil production in Q3. By the end of 2021, the country’s output may increase by 750,000 bpd to 3.15 mln bpd.

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