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Risk of local military clash between Pakistan and India exists — expert

Akbar Shahryar Khan emphasized that any unilateral military move by India could trigger an immediate and proportional response from Pakistan

ISLAMABAD, April 25. /TASS/. There is a significant likelihood of a localized clash between the armed forces of Pakistan and India along the border, according to Akbar Shahryar Khan, a researcher at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, who spoke to a TASS correspondent.

"The increasing instability of India’s political climate has heightened the risk of a limited military confrontation along the Line of Control. Anti-Pakistan sentiments stirred by the Bharatiya Janata Party could prompt concrete military actions. India may opt for a strategy similar to the 2019 airstrikes on Balakot in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province," he explained. "However, this time, the focus is likely to be on artillery shelling rather than aerial attacks, serving as a show of strength without crossing the threshold into full-scale escalation." The expert emphasized that any unilateral military move by India could trigger an immediate and proportional response from Pakistan.

On April 22, gunmen launched a deadly attack in the popular tourist town of Pahalgam in India’s Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The assault resulted in the deaths of twenty-five Indian citizens and one Nepali national, with many others wounded. The attackers managed to escape. According to the Times of India, citing Indian intelligence sources, the attack was carried out by militants affiliated with the "Resistance Front"—the sabotage wing of the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is banned in Russia.

In response, Indian authorities took several measures: they reduced the size of their embassy in Islamabad by nearly half, declared Pakistani military advisers personae non gratae, and closed the vital Attari border checkpoint. India also suspended water-sharing agreements with Pakistan and halted the issuance of visas to Pakistani citizens.

Pakistan’s Security Council announced the suspension of all bilateral agreements with India. It warned that any attempt by India to divert the flow of the Indus River would be considered an act of war. Additionally, Pakistan closed its airspace to India, shut the Wagah border crossing, and declared Indian defense, naval, and aviation advisers personae non gratae.

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