SHANGHAI, November 28. /TASS/. The conflict between Israel and Lebanon could reignite as key contradictions in the region persist and the positions of the parties remain unchanged, Shu Meng, the editor-in-chief of the Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the Center for Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, told TASS.
"Although the current truce may last for some time, deep contradictions in the Middle East persist, and the positions of both sides remain essentially the same. In the future, as soon as the situation shifts, there is a risk that the conflict may flare up again," the expert warned.
Shu recalled that this is not the first time both sides have reached a ceasefire.
"The 2006 agreement was very similar to the current one. Although it brought peace to both countries for several years, in the end, neither side fulfilled the terms. Therefore, how long the ceasefire agreement will last is uncertain," Shu said.
She pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had made it clear that if Hezbollah violated the ceasefire agreement and redeployed its forces to the border region, Israel would take retaliatory military action.
"This statement signals a potential military conflict in the future," the expert believes.
Additionally, when US President-elect Donald Trump assumes office, Washington’s Middle East policy may be adjusted, which further complicates the uncertainty in the region after the ceasefire, Shu believes.
Ceasefire agreement
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel came into force at 4:00 a.m. local time (2:00 a.m. GMT) on November 27, in accordance with the US-French initiative. US President Joe Biden said the agreements between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah stipulated that the Lebanese army and state security forces would regain control of the country’s territory within 60 days. After that, the Israeli army would gradually pull out of Lebanon.
The Lebanese authorities will also undertake to prevent illegal armed groups from operating on Lebanese territory and to seal the loopholes for smuggling weapons to them. All illegal facilities where arms and ammunition are produced will be dismantled and their stockpiles confiscated. With the approval of Israel and Lebanon, a trilateral US-French-British committee will be established to monitor the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Washington is to promote indirect talks between Israel and Lebanon to resolve the outstanding border issues.