MOSCOW, May 13. /TASS/. Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks in Istanbul on May 15; the US and China have agreed to a temporary 90-day mutual tariff cut; Hamas is reportedly willing to accept a partial Gaza agreement as a first step toward a broader ceasefire. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Could Russia and Ukraine take steps toward peace at upcoming meeting in Turkey?
Russia and Ukraine may take steps toward resolving the conflict at a new meeting in Istanbul, Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed resuming talks in Turkey on May 15. The Ukrainian side had previously indicated it was expecting a 30-day ceasefire beginning May 12; however, following Donald Trump’s call to "immediately" agree to the meeting, Vladimir Zelensky dropped the ceasefire condition and announced his readiness to travel to Istanbul. Meanwhile, the US president also said he may visit Turkey if it would be beneficial for the negotiations. Around the same time, an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers will take place in Antalya.
"We had the experience of the first Istanbul round, and the talks at that point were making progress. It is known that on most issues, a mutual understanding was reached and a document was initialed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation before he was pulled back. […] But if the Ukrainian delegation arrives at these talks with a mandate to drop certain ultimatums and to seek common ground, I am confident we could move forward even further than we did in March 2022," Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
He added that such negotiations certainly make sense, but now under the conditions of "Istanbul 2.0": over these three years, the situation on the front line has changed significantly, as has Ukraine’s overall position compared to two years ago.
"Istanbul was proposed by Moscow as a venue for Russian and Ukrainian delegations to meet at a technical level, not at the level of heads of state," said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies of the Higher School of Economics, in an interview with Izvestia. "Zelensky may be traveling from Kiev to Turkey only for yet another PR stunt. This theatrical performance is clearly being staged for Trump. What might be seen in Europe as a PR victory is, perhaps, merely a sign that they are unable to achieve any victories, diplomatic or otherwise, at this point," the expert added.
Evidently, the focus is on derailing the negotiation process once again while presenting themselves in the best possible light before Washington, he added. It is also important to note that Moscow does not consider Zelensky a legitimate president - his term officially expired in May 2024.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s call for Kiev to "immediately" agree to negotiations with Russia in Istanbul has jeopardized other European efforts, particularly the attempt to persuade the United States to impose new sanctions on Russia if Moscow rejects peace initiatives. The European Commission is discussing restrictions on Nord Stream 2, while the United Kingdom is also preparing additional sanctions.
Vedomosti: US, China temporarily slash tariffs by 115%, but risk of trade war still looms
The United States and China will temporarily slash mutual tariffs for a period of 90 days, according to a joint US-Chinese statement issued following negotiations in Geneva and published on the White House website on May 12. Both countries agreed to lower their tariff rates by 115% by May 14: China will reduce tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%, while the US will cut duties on Chinese products from 145% to 30%. The two sides also agreed to establish a framework for continuing discussions on economic and trade relations. Experts told Vedomosti that while the temporary tariff reductions between the US and China are major, they do not eliminate uncertainty, inflation risks, or the potential for a resurgence of a trade war.
The agreements reached in Geneva are significant, yet they do not eliminate the uncertainty that will continue to accompany the future negotiation process between the two countries, Yegor Susin, Head of the Market Strategies Center at Gazprombank, told the newspaper. He explained that despite the talks, tariffs on Chinese goods remain at almost prohibitive levels. As a result, inflationary risks will persist in the United States nonetheless.
At the same time, it is too early to assess either the negative or positive effects of the past month, since both the introduction of tariffs and their subsequent easing will impact the two countries’ economies with a considerable time lag. Susin also emphasized that reaching a broad trade agreement between such large economies could take anywhere from several months to several years.
The risk of a full-scale trade war flaring up still remains, according to Olga Soldatenkova, Chief Research Fellow in the Department of Economic Studies at the Institute of the US and Canada Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. The expert noted that Donald Trump’s negotiation style tends to involve a sharp return to pressure tactics if the dialogue does not unfold according to his expectations. Furthermore, in her view, China’s relatively swift agreement to mutual tariff relief may encourage the United States to introduce additional demands in subsequent stages of trade negotiations.
Izvestia: Hamas signals openness to partial Gaza deal amid encouraging mediation efforts
The Palestinian movement Hamas and Israel may reach a limited agreement on Gaza, which could serve as a foundation for the next stage, a complete ceasefire, a source within the movement told Izvestia. The group remains optimistic about the prospect of reaching a deal. On May 12, Hamas agreed to release an Israeli hostage who also holds US citizenship - an act that could become part of a broader arrangement involving a ceasefire and expanded humanitarian access.
"There is genuine optimism about the possibility of reaching a deal, even if it is only partial. It could pave the way for the second phase, a complete end to the war, provided that Israel and the American side take seriously the proposals submitted by the movement’s delegation," the Izvestia source said.
According to the Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, the negotiations - mediated by Egypt and Qatar and involving active participation from US and Israeli representatives - have shown signs of positive momentum.
Hamas sources cited by the publication did not rule out that the agreement could be finalized within the next 48 hours, assuming all parties accept the current proposals.
Hani Salah, an expert on Palestinian resistance issues, believes the release of the Israeli-American hostage is not merely a gesture in exchange for humanitarian aid, but rather represents a starting point for a potential agreement and demonstrates intentions of cooperation on Hamas’s part. In the expert’s assessment, this step was likely the result of certain promises made by the US side and may be seen as a pivotal phase in the evolving negotiation process.
Vedomosti: Kurdistan Workers’ Party announces self-dissolution, possibly ending decades-long conflict
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), banned in Turkey, has declared the end of its armed struggle and announced its dissolution, according to a statement published on May 12 by Firat News, a media outlet affiliated with the organization. The statement asserted that the PKK had fulfilled its historical mission. The decision was made following the party’s 12th congress, held on May 5-7 at an undisclosed location in northern Iraq. Delegates emphasized that the Kurdish issue in Turkey could now be addressed based on the principle of equal rights for all citizens, regardless of ethnicity, Vedomosti writes.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan later described the PKK’s decision to disband as historic, stressing that Ankara would closely monitor how the organization follows through on this move in practice.
Amur Gadzhiev, head of the Center for the Study of Modern Turkey and senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that both domestic and foreign policy factors influenced the PKK’s decision. Turkish authorities have signaled a more flexible approach to resolving the Kurdish issue, potentially enabling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his allies to secure additional parliamentary votes from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party and move forward with a constitutional referendum. At the same time, Gadzhiev explained that external conditions have become more difficult for the Kurds, as the United States and European Union countries remain reluctant to challenge Ankara on the issue. "Following the rise to power of new, Turkey-friendly authorities in Syria, the Kurds have effectively found themselves isolated by neighboring states," the expert said.
President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Murad Sadygzade emphasized that the PKK’s decision reflects not so much an admission of defeat as an acknowledgment of a changing historical context, in which traditional methods of armed struggle have ceased to be relevant or viable. "I do not rule out the possibility of outbreaks of violence, especially in response to potential repression. The confrontation between the PKK and Turkey is entering a new phase - less violent, yet still fragile," he noted.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Geopolitics, not oil prices, may steer ruble’s path heading into summer
In the coming weeks, the ruble’s exchange rate will be influenced less by oil prices and more by geopolitical tensions, specifically the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rather than Donald Trump’s trade war, according to analysts surveyed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The ruble could move in several directions depending on how events evolve: under certain scenarios, the dollar could be seen at either 70 or even 100 rubles. In the second half of the year, the ruble is expected to follow a declining trajectory, though this drop is projected to be gradual rather than abrupt.
Mikhail Vasiliev, Chief Analyst at Sovcombank, believes the ruble will stay relatively stable through the second half of May, trading close to its current levels, although much will hinge on geopolitical developments. If there are no major shifts, the dollar is likely to stay within a range of 78-84 rubles. Should negotiations between Russia and Ukraine advance, or if Western sanctions are relaxed, the ruble could strengthen to the 70-80 range, and possibly even 60-70 rubles if foreign investment returns to the Russian market, the analyst noted. Conversely, if talks escalate, the rate could rapidly climb back to 90-100 rubles, Vasiliev warned.
A strong ruble primarily benefits importers and consumers, who would be able to purchase foreign goods at lower prices. Additionally, a firm ruble could help slow inflation more quickly and potentially prompt the Bank of Russia to start cutting interest rates sooner.
Even under the most favorable scenario for Russia - including conflict resolution in Ukraine and the removal of sanctions - the ruble is unlikely to remain strong indefinitely. Russia’s export-heavy economic structure and the ongoing need to replenish the federal budget will eventually place pressure on the currency.
Natalya Milchakova, Lead Analyst at Freedom Finance Global, expects the ruble to begin losing ground in the second half of 2025. Ivan Yefanov, analyst at Tsifra Broker, noted that based on the revised average ruble exchange rate embedded in the federal budget, the ruble should currently be hovering around 100 per dollar. "The longer it stays below this target, the more sharply it may surge in the second half of the year," the expert told the newspaper.
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