Izvestia: US unlikely to leave Afghanistan on time
The United States will hardly be able to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by August 31, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. They expect that a certain number of US service members will remain in the country in the wake of the recent terrorist attack on the Kabul airport. On August 29, the US carried out a strike near the airport, claiming later that the goal was to stop a suicide bomber. The strike hit a residential area and killed seven, according to the latest data. The day before that, the US eliminated two members of the Islamic State terror group (outlawed in Russia) in Afghanistan.
US President Joe Biden is trying to prepare the public for the fact that the evacuation process may take longer than expected, Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sotnikov speculated. According to him, the August 31 deadline is impossible to meet because US troops, who are particularly trying to ensure order at Kabul airport, remain in the country. "I expect that some of the US service members will remain there, along with the French and British ones," the political analyst added.
"Afghanistan will still be in a state of civil war, which has been going on for decades, but this time, it will be complicated by foreign interference. The Americans will not fully leave Afghanistan. Besides, another reason for a rise in tensions is that the United States has left behind a large amount of weapons, and did that on purpose," Ajar Kurtov, a political analyst pointed out. The commentator explained that if the US had to disable, say, a combat helicopter, it would have taken only a TNT block with an electronic control system. The same goes for small arms. "However, they did nothing of the kind and I think that the handover of weapons could be part of a secret deal," the expert added.
Still, even the presence of a large amount of weapons will not allow the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) to conduct offensive operations outside Afghanistan, Kurtov noted. "The Taliban will be busy with domestic affairs. They don’t seem to be inclined towards external aggression," the analyst emphasized.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Number of China's nukes expected to surpass Russia's stockpile
Beijing greenlighted virtual talks between Chinese and US military officials who discussed the Afghan issue and the risk of clashes in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Command has stated that in a few years, China will surpass Russia as the top nuclear threat to America. According to satellite imagery, China is constructing hundreds of new silos for nuclear missiles, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Contacts between China and the US don’t include the field of nuclear weapons, which is what Washington is disgruntled about. The US maintains dialogue with Russia on reducing the risk of misunderstandings and mistakes but there is no dialogue on the matter with China. The Chinese media believes that the US seeks to sow discord between Russia and Beijing by raising Moscow’s concerns.
Vasily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Far Eastern Studies, says that "during this decade, China will lag behind Russia in terms of the number of warheads." "However, in the long run, China certainly has more resources to increase their number. Perhaps, the country will make a breakthrough, taking the number of warheads to several hundred and even a thousand. It’s not the number of warheads that matters but the way they are organized, as well as their variety. For instance, China has some sorts of weapons that Russia lacks, including intermediate-range ballistic missiles," the expert explained.
Another important aspect is that in the past, China’s understanding of combat readiness used to differ from Russia’s. "They did not store missiles with warheads installed but the situation will change. It’s important that the Chinese have gained the experience that the Russians and Americans already have," Kashin emphasized.
As for China’s prospects on joining the nuclear arms talks, the country’s position remains the same. Beijing will never agree to a lower nuclear threshold than that of Russia’s, the US’ or other countries’, the analyst concluded.
Vedomosti: Turkey ready to ink second contract to purchase Russia’s S-400s
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an interview with NTV that Ankara would undoubtedly purchase a second batch of the S-400 air defense systems from Russia. Alexander Mikheyev, CEO of Russia’s state arms seller Rosoboronexport (part of the Rostec state corporation), said on the sidelines of the Army 2021 forum in late August that an additional contract for the delivery of the S-400 systems to Turkey was expected to be signed before the end of the year, Vedomosti writes.
Russia and Turkey penned a framework agreement for the delivery of four S-400 batteries to the tune of roughly $2.5 bln in 2017. Turkey’s move triggered criticism and pressure from Washington.
Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov believes that the situation around the second contract remains unpredictable because of the Turkish leader’s personality. Erdogan may sign a second and even a third contract to purchase the S-400 systems, but he may also refuse to sign anything as it will depend on what he considers best for himself and his policy, the expert pointed out. The Turkish leader seeks to boost his importance in the eyes of NATO and the West but at the same time, he is trying to pursue an independent foreign policy, Pukhov went on to say. Only time will tell if his efforts to ensure foreign policy independence - first and foremost, from the US - will prove successful, the commentator noted.
According to Research Fellow Turkish Sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Amur Gadzhiyev, the West won't be able to retaliate if Turkey purchases the Russian systems. Relations between Ankara and Washington are already tense, with a number of Turkish individuals and agencies under sanctions, and Turkey having been removed from the F-35 strike fighter program. According to the expert, Western countries have run out of ways to put pressure on Erdogan even before he had purchased the first S-400 regiment set. Besides, the Turkish administration has managed to create a mechanism to counter the West’s pressure so even if there is another wave of sanctions, it won’t affect Turkey much, the analyst pointed out.
Kommersant: Ukrainian president to visit US amid Afghan debacle
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s upcoming meeting with US President Joe Biden is going to be the highlight of his upcoming trip to the United States. The visit comes amid Washington’s efforts to end its 20-year-long presence in Afghanistan and the threat of new terrorist attacks. The Afghan campaign’s failure has overshadowed Ukraine-related issues for Washington but Kiev is hopeful that since Biden is in need of a quick diplomatic victory, he will be more inclined to make agreements on security cooperation and meet Ukraine halfway in terms of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, Kommersant notes.
During his visit, Zelensky will pursue taking the strategic partnership with the US to a new level, boost American investment in Ukraine, especially in the aerospace and defense industries, and he will also try to enhance defense cooperation in order to contain Russia.
Meanwhile, given the increased security threats to the US and the need to take urgent action to diminish the highly negative effects of the Afghan fiasco, Zelensky’s visit to the US will be largely determined by the developments in Afghanistan. His meeting with Biden was first postponed from August 30 to August 31, the day that will mark the end of the US military presence in Afghanistan. However, news emerged later that the talks had been put off to September 1.
Director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky explained that given the current situation, there is not a single chance that the Biden administration will be able to take advantage of the Ukrainian track to offset its failure in Afghanistan. "It is already impossible to block the Nord Stream 2 project, the US cannot guarantee that the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine will be extended. As for Donbass, the United States can’t stand up to its European allies and greenlight Kiev’s refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements," the expert pointed out.
Kommersant: Russia sees rise in grain exports
Russian agricultural companies increased grain exports in late August ahead of a rise in tariffs on exports. Grain exports nearly doubled to 1.4 mln tonnes a week, Kommersant writes.
Rusagrotrans Analytical Center head Igor Pavensky points out that exports are growing because of the increased demand for Russian wheat in Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The low quality of this year’s wheat crop in a number of the European Union countries is the reason since crops were affected by heavy rains in France, Germany and Poland, Pavensky specified.
SovEcon Director Andrei Sizov, in turn, noted that high prices on the global market and rather low domestic prices have also had a favorable impact on grain exports. Chairman of the Board at the Russian Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin also emphasized that the situation in late August favored grain exports, one of the reasons being an "overwhelming" report issued by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA lowered its forecast of Russia’s wheat crop from 85 mln tonnes to 72.5 mln tonnes, and reduced the exports forecasts from 40 mln tonnes to 35 mln tonnes due to a reduction in the area under winter crops.
"It opened a window of opportunities that some exporters took advantage of to sell extra grain on the spot market," Zernin explained. However, in his words, after the hike in tariffs in September, the window of opportunities will close and export rates may go down at the beginning of next month. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture maintains its grain harvest forecast at 127.4 mln tonnes and its export forecast at 49 mln tonnes.
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