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Expert predicts OPEC oil agreement will not match plans, deal will be 'declarative'

Disagreements inside the OPEC is the key risk for the deal

MOSCOW, November 3. /TASS/. OPEC and non-OPEC countries can make a rather declarative agreement at the meeting on November 30 and its results will not correspond to initial plans of cutting oil production to 32.5-33 mln barrels daily, Sberbank CIB strategist Mikhail Sheibe told TASS on Thursday.

"It will probably be an agreement of intent to limit oil production with the list of permissible quotas exactly or nearly equal to production levels for the time being. It can already be stated now with a high degree of probability that the result will not match the initial plan of reducing production in OPEC countries to 32.5-33 mln barrels daily," the expert said.

Disagreements inside the OPEC is the key risk for the deal, Sheibe said referring to demands of Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Libya for exemptions from the production freeze plan. "They demand that they are not forced to cut production and this already caused a domino effect - non-OPEC countries do not want to freeze production now until the OPEC settles issues at variance," he added.

If the agreement is nevertheless reached, the effect on prices will be a short-term one, up to levels of $52-53 per barrel, the expert said. Prices may then adjust again to $48-49 per barrel "because the market is fundamentally weak," Sheibe said.