MOSCOW, February 13. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia decided to cut the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5% per annum at the first meeting of its Board of Directors in 2026, with the underlying measures of current price growth having not changed considerably, the regulator reported.
TASS has collected the main facts about the decision.
Statement by Central Bank
- The Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5% per annum at its first meeting in 2026.
- The regulator will assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
Influence of factors on key rate decision
- Unemployment in Russia remains at historical lows, and wage growth is still outpacing the growth in labor productivity, the regulator said.
- The labor market tightness is gradually decreasing, the Central Bank noted.
- The upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path is decreasing, the Bank of Russia stated.
- Growth in domestic demand will moderate in the coming months, the Central Bank projected.
Regulator’s outlook for 2026
- Russia’s Central Bank maintained its 2026 forecasts at 0.5-1.5% for GDP growth, at 5-10% for growth in consumer lending, and at 7-12% for growth in corporate lending.
- The regulator narrowed the forecast corridor for the average key rate until the end of 2026 to 13.5-14.5%.
- Underlying inflation in Russia will be close to 4% in the second half of 2026, the regulator said.
- Annual inflation in Russia stood at 6.3% as of February 9.
- The Bank of Russia projects that annual inflation in the country will decrease to 4.5-5.5% in 2026.
- The Central Bank also downgraded its forecast for the price of a barrel of oil for tax purposes in 2026 from $55 to $45.
Experts’ expectations
- The Bank of Russia will proceed cautiously in easing its monetary policy in 2026, according to Yuri Kravchenko, head of the banking and monetary market analysis department at Veles Capital.
- Most analysts expected the Central Bank to keep the key rate at 16%.
- Head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) Alexander Shokhin noted in an interview with TASS that the likelihood that the Bank of Russia would lower the key rate, although not high, still existed.
- The regulator’s Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said in early February that Russian households' inflation expectations for the year ahead in December and January at 13.7% were likely the peak.
- He also emphasized that the peak inflation levels of January were unlikely to be repeated.
Central Bank’s previous decision
- At its previous meeting in December, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate to 16% per annum amid a decline in sustainable indicators of current growth of prices.
- However, the regulator pointed to increased inflation expectations, which could hinder the achievement of inflation targets.