MOSCOW, May 16. /TASS/. According to Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and senior researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, NATO neophyte countries are actively pursuing a course aimed at disrupting Russia’s trade and economic interactions with partners in the Baltic region. This effort includes staging provocations in the water area and threatening Russia’s civilian maritime fleet.
On May 13, the Estonian Navy, supported by NATO aviation, attempted to force the vessel Jaguar - flying the Gabonese flag - to proceed to a NATO-controlled zone for detention and inspection. Estonia even threatened to ram the ship, which carried four Russian citizens among its crew. However, the captain ignored Tallinn’s demands and continued on course toward the Russian port of Primorsk.
Stepanov remarked, "In the Baltic, we observe a persistent pattern of provocations by NATO forces, including its newer members. These actions involve maritime piracy as a tool of blackmail and pressure, aimed at blocking maritime trade routes, threatening civilian vessels, and attempting to paralyze Russia’s trade and economic relations with foreign partners. Such tactics jeopardize vulnerable maritime and transport communications critical to the region."
He explained that these provocations are part of NATO’s broader strategy to undermine Russia’s economic development, specifically targeting maritime logistics. Similar incidents have occurred in the Black Sea, often involving the Kiev regime’s saboteurs acting as proxies, and in the Mediterranean, including the recent destruction of the Russian vessel Ursa Major.
Stepanov also highlighted the growing military capabilities in the Baltic Sea. These include Copenhagen’s efforts to assert control over the Danish Straits using autonomous surface vehicles like Saildrone’s Voyager, as well as the deployment of high-precision anti-ship missile systems in the Baltic States, supported by Norwegian firm Kongsberg. These measures, he notes, form a coordinated effort to create unacceptable conditions for Russian naval navigation and to disrupt communications with Russia’s Leningrad naval base, effectively blocking supplies to northwest Russia.
He further speculated that this strategy aims to prevent the revival of trade and energy cooperation between Russia and the European Union, with particular focus on thwarting initiatives such as the Nord Stream pipeline. While some voices, such as members of Germany’s Alternative for Germany party, advocate for restoring these energy routes, Stepanov contends that the dominant Euro-Atlantic ultra-globalist discourse seeks to escalate tensions and obstruct constructive dialogue that considers all regional interests.
Deterrence and response
Stepanov emphasized that Russia will respond to provocations, potentially with asymmetric measures. The defense of Russia’s fleet, as well as allied naval and commercial vessels in neutral waters, can involve a range of defensive tools, including military-technical means. He cited the recent decision to establish unmanned system regiments across the Russian Navy, which will monitor water areas and, when necessary, escort civilian ships.
Regarding specific incidents, Stepanov pointed to the recent deployment of a Su-35 fighter jet during the Jaguar tanker incident. The appearance of the Russian aircraft caused the Estonian military to retreat, as the Su-35’s onboard weapons could neutralize most of Estonia’s surface fleet. He considers this a legitimate and effective response to maritime provocations. To prevent future incidents, Stepanov advocates for continuous monitoring of the situation and ensuring the prompt defense of Russia’s civilian and allied vessels.
In summary, Stepanov underscores that while provocative actions may entail responses, Russia remains prepared to defend its interests and the interests of friendly countries through various means, maintaining vigilance in the Baltic Sea region.