MOSCOW, June 16. /TASS/. Iran and Israel have exchanged heavy strikes since June 13 in a new wave of escalation; a surge in violence and anti-Trump protests is further polarizing American society; and Russia plans to demand that Ukraine dismantle Western-supplied weapons as a precondition for new peace talks. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Iran-Israel conflict deepens with hundreds killed, Russia proposing mediation as global powers respond
The unprecedented exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, which began on the morning of June 13, has already resulted in numerous casualties and extensive destruction on both sides. In response to the initial wave of Israeli airstrikes, Iran, following several hours of hesitation, launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel. The mutual aerial assaults have continued for three consecutive days. Since June 13, Israel has attacked more than 720 Iranian military sites. Civilian infrastructure has also been hit - for example, one of the buildings of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, according to statements by Iran’s diplomatic service.
The conflict between Iran and Israel is steadily escalating, though both sides appear to be leaving room for potential negotiations, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Tehran and Tel Aviv continue to exchange strikes, and the hostilities have now drawn in Yemen’s Houthi movement. Russia has proposed its mediation services, with officials in the Federation Council telling Izvestia that Moscow is doing everything possible to bring an end to the hostilities in the Middle East.
Diplomatic initiatives from various actors may play a significant role in the conflict. According to media reports, other possible intermediaries include Cyprus and certain Gulf States. However, the risk of the conflict spreading remains high, particularly if Western nations become directly involved.
"Everything is being done to ensure that this growing confrontation does not drag on. In any case, Russia stands for the termination of this military standoff and the return of peace in the Middle East," Chairman of the Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia.
A prolonged war is not in Israel’s interest, even with ongoing US military and intelligence support, analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics Tigran Meloyan told the newspaper. "Israel’s small economy and the high cost of its aerial capabilities play a significant role. It is entirely plausible that in response to Iranian attacks, Israel may begin launching systematic strikes against Iran’s oil extraction and refining infrastructure. In that case, Iran could play its next card, the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could trigger a global energy crisis," the expert noted.
In a comment to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Vladimir Sazhin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that although Iran has suffered a significant blow, it is unlikely that one can confidently predict the regime’s collapse. "Israel is now targeting vital components of Iran’s economy and infrastructure, which, incidentally, is not necessarily in Israel’s own interest. When facilities essential to the population’s basic needs are destroyed, the people may rally together, not necessarily under the banner of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but under the banner of Iran itself," Sazhin said.
Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict appears to have yielded its first significant outcome with Tehran reportedly prepared to sign an agreement with the United States that would ensure the absence of nuclear weapons in the country while preserving its right to peaceful nuclear energy, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced.
In the renewed US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which resumed on April 12, both sides have encountered a crisis of trust, Associate Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics Lev Sokolshchik told Vedomosti. "Iran now finds itself in a paradoxical situation, forced to negotiate while simultaneously defending the country against Israeli military aggression," he stated.
The United States is taking indirect part in the Iran-Israel conflict, Sokolshchik believes. The expert does not rule out the possibility that, in the event of further escalation, not only the United States but also certain European Union countries may join the conflict on the side of the Jewish state.
Political analyst Andrey Kortunov emphasized several implications of the escalating Middle East conflict for Russia in his article for Kommersant. "First, it is evident that any escalation in the Middle East automatically drives up global hydrocarbon prices, including those for Russian exports. Second, renewed tensions in the region divert the attention of Moscow’s opponents from the war in Ukraine and shift the priorities of Western military aid programs. Third, given our allied relations with Tehran, Russia could theoretically act as an impartial mediator between the warring parties, contributing, if not to a resolution, then at least to the de-escalation of the crisis. In doing so, Moscow would reinforce its influence in the region following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria," he said, adding that at the same time, the current escalation also entails serious risks and potential costs for Moscow.
Izvestia: New surge of violence, anti-Trump protests divide US society
American society is becoming increasingly divided amid mounting civil protests. Tensions between supporters and opponents of President Donald Trump’s policies are rising, and experts interviewed by Izvestia warn that politically motivated violence may intensify. In Minnesota alone, a former state house speaker was murdered, and another Democratic politician survived an assassination attempt in a single day. Large-scale demonstrations organized under the slogan No Kings were staged across the country, targeting, among other things, Trump’s immigration agenda. These protests unfolded even as the American president celebrated his 79th birthday and the 250th anniversary of the US Army with a military parade in Washington, D.C.
Initially sparked in Los Angeles, the protests, ostensibly a response to actions by immigration authorities, quickly evolved into a broader confrontation with what some Americans view as the autocratic nature of Donald Trump’s administration.
Peter Kuznick, Director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University in Washington told Izvestia there are plenty of reasons for Americans to protest against the president, including Trump’s deployment of the National Guard and the Marine Corps to the streets of Los Angeles, despite opposition from the mayor, the governor, and local law enforcement.
According to Kuznick, the country is experiencing an unprecedented level of corruption, mass immigration raids, and worsening fiscal conditions. Other critical issues include the reduction of scientific research funding, the instigation of trade wars with much of the world, and unpopular foreign policy moves, such as backing Israel’s actions in Gaza and giving what many see as a green light for the bombing of Iran. Former Republican Party advisor Jim Jatras also believes that polarization within American society will continue to grow.
Still, some experts argue that the crisis can be overcome. Egor Toropov, political analyst at the Higher School of Economics, believes the escalation in American political discourse, particularly regarding immigration, may paradoxically help bridge the gap between Republicans and Democrats.
"The peak of the protests against the Trump administration’s anti-immigration raids has already passed. The more militant actions will gradually subside. Trump has already announced a halt to raids on hotels, restaurants, and farms, key sectors employing undocumented immigrants, while continuing to emphasize the overall rise in deportations and efforts to block further illegal immigration," Toropov noted.
Izvestia: Russia to demand Ukraine dismantle western arms as key point of upcoming peace talks
Russia will demand that Ukraine dispose of Western-supplied arms, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. The arming of the Kiev regime poses a serious threat to the security of the Western countries themselves, he said. Experts believe the issue of Ukraine’s demilitarization may be discussed during the third round of peace talks. Moscow is prepared to resume negotiations after June 22, Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov stated following a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Kiev is expected to articulate its position after the conclusion of the G7 summit in Canada, which ends on June 17. Meanwhile, both sides are moving forward with implementing the humanitarian agreements reached in Istanbul.
Western arms supplied to Ukraine must be verifiably reduced and dismantled, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko emphasized. "Of course, all of these surplus stockpiles must be destroyed. All relevant international protocols are well known. These weapons must be reduced and disposed of, verifiably so," Grushko said in response to an Izvestia inquiry about whether Russia would demand the disposal of Western arms delivered to Ukraine.
Moreover, the reckless influx of arms into Ukraine represents a serious threat not only to regional but also to global security, including that of the Western nations themselves, he added.
"Even with all past experience, it is astonishing how reckless some political actors remain, continuing to flood the market with arms while fully aware that black markets are overflowing with military hardware. As a result of corruption schemes, these weapons are making their way to all corners of the globe, including Europe," Grushko noted.
"The quantity of weapons is less important than the political will to implement disarmament," political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia. "When such will exists, financial and social incentives are typically used to encourage people to abandon armed resistance. Of course, under current conditions, disarmament is in everyone’s interest, including the Ukrainian government, especially given the sheer volume of small arms circulating among the civilian population," he added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Oil market braces for $100 per barrel as Iran-Israel conflict threatens global energy flows
The continued escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel could, in the foreseeable future, result in the removal of approximately 1.5 mln barrels of oil per day and some 20 bln cubic meters of gas from the global market. More alarmingly, Iran may move to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which 30% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 20% of its total crude oil supplies pass, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Such a move would inevitably drive commodity prices sharply upward - an outcome experts believe would benefit Russia’s budget. A negative consequence for Russia may be the need to develop new logistical routes, which would in turn increase delivery delays.
Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta do not rule out the possibility of further escalation, including a full-scale war between Tehran and Tel Aviv, potentially involving third-party nations. The intensifying Iran-Israel conflict could have wide-ranging implications for the global economy, and for Russia in particular.
Iranian media, citing statements by Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s Parliament Commission on National Security and Foreign Policy, report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is under active consideration. Given that 20% of the world’s crude oil passes through the strait, its closure would result in an abrupt drop in global oil supply. Additionally, 30% of global LNG shipments also transit this route.
As Western agencies have noted, Greece and the United Kingdom have already advised their commercial fleets to exercise heightened caution. Voyages through the Strait of Hormuz are now subject to mandatory registration, and oil tanker operators are beginning to divert routes to avoid the area.
The primary consequence for the oil market would be a surge in prices. However, forecasts for how high oil prices might climb vary significantly. Iranian media speculate that crude could soar to as much as $250 per barrel. Russian officials suggest a more conservative, though still dramatic, increase to around $130 per barrel if the strait is closed.
The closure of the Strait would indeed be a shock to global markets, agrees Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. "Oil prices will jump to at least $100 per barrel. Iran has warned it would take such action in the face of an existential threat, though that scenario remains the least probable," he told the newspaper. Beyond oil prices, a closure would also trigger spikes in transportation and insurance costs.
Analysts further expect that, beginning Monday, the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel will also impact European markets, most notably, by driving up gasoline prices across EU countries.
Kommersant: Rosatom to head global consortium for building Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant
Rosatom will spearhead an international consortium tasked with the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). The issue of utilizing Russian state export financing for the project is currently under review, with capital expenditures estimated at $10-12 bln, Kommersant writes. Analysts believe Rosatom was selected due to the technological maturity of its proposal and alignment with Kazakhstan’s existing infrastructure. However, resolving the country’s energy deficit will also require the effective integration of the NPP into the national power system.
China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) came in second on the shortlist of potential technology providers, followed by France’s Electricite de France (EDF) and South Korea’s Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), which tied for third place. Kazakhstan will retain ownership of the plant, act as its operator, and provide uranium fuel, according to Chairman of the Kazakh Atomic Energy Agency Almasadam Satkaliyev.
Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev stated that the project involves the construction of a nuclear power plant based on the VVER-1200 reactor, a generation III+ technology. He noted that reactors of this type are already operational in Russia and abroad, four units in Russia and two in Belarus, while the same technology has also been selected by partner countries such as Hungary, Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and China.
Igor Chausov from EnergyNet emphasized that nuclear power is a high-tech and viable solution to long-term energy shortages. However, he added that for nuclear power plants to be effectively integrated into Kazakhstan’s energy system, the country must also invest in the development of its electrical grid and energy resilience management. This includes deploying energy storage systems, encouraging active consumer participation, implementing demand-side management, and other strategies aimed at creating intelligent, distributed energy systems.
Sergey Rozhenko from Kept anticipates the project will proceed under an intergovernmental cooperation framework, with partial financial support from Russia. Based on the announced configuration, likely two VVER-1200 reactor units, he estimates project CAPEX at $10-12 bln, noting that a similar project in Uzbekistan is valued at approximately $11 bln.
In his view, the selection of Rosatom appears to be the most pragmatic decision, as the VVER-1200 is a serial production model with six units already in operation, and it also aligns closely with Kazakhstan’s regulatory standards and technical culture.
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