MOSCOW, December 13. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s latest visit to the US shows that Washington has no plans to end military assistance to Kiev; new US sanctions on Russia are targeting third countries; and Britain’s Royal Navy is seeking to challenge the Russian Navy in Black Sea waters with assistance to Kiev’s decimated naval forces. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Washington not planning to end military assistance to Kiev
The outcome of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to the United States makes it clear that Washington has no intention of ending military assistance to Kiev. In addition to fresh supplies of ammunition and armored equipment, the US promised to help Zelensky develop a military strategy for 2024-2025 to continue Kiev’s fight against Russia. Toward that end, US Army Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto, commander of the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, has been sent on a mission to Kiev, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to the New York Times, Aguto will work directly with Ukraine’s military leadership. It is not clear from the article in the US "paper of record" what specific type of new strategy the Pentagon brass dispatched to Kiev might offer the Ukrainian armed forces. The authors did not rule out that the new strategy for Kiev’s forces would be aimed at continuing deep strikes into Russian territory, including Crimea, similar to those seen in the fall.
"It’s obvious from US media reports that the Pentagon can no longer fully fund Kiev but that leaves open the possibility of attacking Russia with long-range missiles," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert. "The Ukrainian armed forces may focus on large-scale acts of sabotage against Russia’s strategic facilities in 2024. This is why Russia needs to improve the effectiveness not only of combat operations and air defenses, but also of law enforcement and security agencies, providing additional protection to military plants and transport routes," he explained.
Certain US military officials would like Ukraine to zero in on defending the territory that remains under its control, while increasing its ability to produce weapons over the next year, according to the New York Times.
"Major US and European arms corporations will hardly be willing to operate in a country that comes under missile and drone attacks every single day," Netkachev pointed out. He does not rule out that defense co-production facilities may be established in Ukraine’s neighbors, namely the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. "These plans should be treated with the utmost seriousness," the expert noted. "Diplomatic means may be used to hinder them and, under certain circumstances, radical military methods may also be employed. However, it would be best to use hybrid methods to force Ukraine to make peace so that it surrenders in the face of Russia’s strategic success," the expert concluded.
Kommersant: US’ latest anti-Russian sanctions targeting third countries with Russia ties
The latest set of US sanctions on Russia targets a number of prominent domestic businessmen and major companies across various sectors. However, the international dimension of the new sanctions is one of their most important features. The new sanctions list includes numerous individuals and companies from China, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Turkey. Among them are both obscure logistics middlemen and major manufacturers, Kommersant writes.
An increasing number of Russia’s remaining international partners are beginning to feel the effect of secondary sanctions. The newest additions to the Specially Designated Nationals And Blocked Persons List (SDN), the most stringent level of US sanctions, largely consist of such players. In particular, a broad range of Chinese manufacturers and suppliers of electronics components have now been blacklisted for the first time.
Maxim Kuznetsov, chairman of the Russian-Asian Business Council, an autonomous non-profit organization, acknowledges that Chinese companies "have become more cautious about working with Russian companies." However, in his words, their cautiousness is mostly evident from their choice "of certain correspondent banks that can help escape sanctions." "In some cases, for instance, if ties with US and European partners are crucial for a Chinese supplier, it asks its Russian counterparties to include an additional company from mainland China or Hong Kong into the scheme so that it can act as the exporter," Kuznetsov explained.
Anton Imennov, senior partner at the Pen & Paper law firm, emphasizes that individuals and companies from third countries are one of the main targets of the new US sanctions as, according to the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which runs Washington’s far-flung sanctions programs, such entities help support the Russian economy, which, in turn, depends on supplies of foreign technologies, equipment and resources. The expert views restrictions against Chinese individuals and companies as the most significant of all secondary sanctions "because Beijing is one of Moscow’s key partners."
Izvestia: London’s admirals seeking to challenge Russian Navy in Black Sea waters
The United Kingdom and Norway are creating a coalition in the Black Sea to help Ukraine ensure its maritime exports, of grain in particular. The new coalition’s near-term plans include transferring two Sandown-class minehunter vessels from the British Royal Navy to Kiev, as well as training naval infantry and small boat crews for Ukraine’s coastal fleet. Longer term, the coalition intends to assist Kiev in carrying out an overall upgrade of its naval forces. Experts, however, doubt that the move will help Ukraine rebuild its navy, while the British minehunters will be immediately destroyed either by Russian warships or aircraft, Izvestia notes.
The creation of such a new naval coalition thus far appears more to be a means of delivering a political message, said Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former UN undersecretary general. "It’s a deliberate move to escalate tensions," he noted. "It’s about refocusing efforts from the Baltic Sea area in the north, where Great Britain has just completed drills, to the south. The coalition cannot be described as a serious military alliance because it’s more like a political step aimed at demonstrating support for Kiev at a difficult time following the failure of its counteroffensive. London is currently one of the main sponsors of the [Kiev] regime and it needs to do something. I don’t think that the coalition will grow and British - let alone, Norwegian - ships will enter the Black Sea," he added.
Ordzhonikidze pointed out that Ukraine had in fact lost its navy. "The new minehunting vessels will add to rising tensions," he noted. "Acts of provocation are possible but I believe that if anything like that happens, the Russian Navy will take the necessary measures that will prove effective. In practical terms, the provision of two minehunters will not change a thing," he added.
The Sandown-class ships have no combat value at all, military expert Alexey Leonkov stressed. "They are designed to sweep sea mines but it’s unclear if it will be possible to use them for their intended purpose because reports don’t say whether they were transferred together with the relevant equipment. As for using them as combat ships or bases for sea drones, it would be suicidal. Our A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft are on duty in the Black Sea, as well as MiG-31 planes equipped with Kinzhal missiles, and other reconnaissance means. These [ex-Royal Navy minehunter] vessels would be detected and destroyed at once," the military expert said.
Media: New financial crisis may be looming amid high interest rates in US, Europe
The short-lived era of high interest rates and the highest inflation rates in 40 years, recorded in the US and eurozone countries, may end in 2024. However, this would provide no guarantee that the global financial system will not face any more shocks, because there are so many risks that the world could very easily plunge into a new crisis. It is quite possible that we will see the contours of a future financial policy later this week as the United States Federal Reserve will hold its last meeting of the year on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet on Thursday, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
Sovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasilyev predicts that the Fed and the ECB will not move to change interest rates. "The era of high inflation is almost over in the US and the eurozone and there will be no more need to raise interest rates. Investors are already working based on expectations that both the Federal Reserve and the ECB will cut rates next year," the expert noted.
However, the tough monetary policy of the US and European regulators has accumulated risks for the global financial system and if the system collapses, another financial crisis may break out. According to Vasilyev, the dollar-centered financial system is becoming increasingly fragile not only due to high interest rates but also because of geopolitical issues (deteriorating relations between the US and China, the Ukrainian conflict and the freezing of Russia’s assets). "A new shock (for example, a war in the Middle East and a rise in oil prices) may trigger a new global financial crisis," the analyst warned.
A dramatic increase in the debt burden on developed countries is one of the potentially potent consequences of the rise in interest rates, Yegor Susin, managing director at Gazprombank Private Banking, told Izvestia. Many countries are unlikely to be able to service their debt from their fiscal revenues, which will lead to additional borrowings and, consequently, to another round of increased spending.
The picture is getting gloomier for developed countries and the entire global economy. The risk of a recession may bring down demand for commodities, which would be a painful blow for Russia. However, any crisis also creates opportunities and with the right approach, it may prove possible to reap the maximum benefits from the ongoing reshaping of the current global financial and economic system.
Media: Continuing need for fossil fuels drives UN climate summit into dead-end
Fossil fuel producers are emerging victorious from a conflict with proponents of the "green" agenda at the UN climate summit in Dubai. The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, was supposed to end at noon on Tuesday but the organizers extended it in a bid to reach a compromise on the text of the confab’s final declaration that would include at least a hint of when it may be possible to abandon fossil fuels altogether, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
The reason why the forum was extended is because the positions of supporters of the "green" agenda and those who do not see the possibility of abandoning oil, gas and coal in the current situation are effectively irreconcilable. As the level of arguments and debates, the advocates of fossil fuels secured a victory, but it has little to do with real demand because the biggest importers of oil, gas and coal are increasing their shares of renewable energy sources.
This is what China is doing. Solar panels and windmills with a total capacity of 455 gigawatts will be set up in the Kubuqi Desert 500 kilometers from Beijing in five years. This will exceed the capacity of clean energy facilities anywhere beyond China, said Pavel Sevostyanov, associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Still, "the use of traditional sources of energy will not drop at once," Dmitry Baranov, leading expert at Finan Management, pointed out. "It may take decades. Apart from extractive sectors, consumers are also not ready to ditch them, which is the most important thing. The reason is that there are few technologies capable of replacing traditional energy sources, and the existing technologies aren’t effective enough," he added.
Natalya Churkina, an analyst at the Institute for Complex Strategic Research, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the move to abandon hydrocarbons even by 2050 looked rather radical. Today, the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption still exceeds 80%. Given the wide diversity of conditions that countries across the world are facing, it is clear that reaching a consensus will be extremely difficult.
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