PARIS, July 3. /TASS/. Restrictions on purchasing Russian gas could be revised in Europe amid a relentless surge in energy prices driven by supply disruptions from the Middle East, Jacques Sapir, French economist and director of studies at the Paris-based School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS), told TASS.
According to him, the current spike in natural gas prices on European hubs stems from production bottlenecks rather than logistical challenges.
"The destruction caused by the US and Israeli war against Iran has inflicted severe damage on the export capacity of Qatar, which ranks as the world's top or second-largest LNG exporter. Specifically, the foundations of gas compression units were damaged. Such facilities are highly specialized and have long production lead times. Qatari authorities estimate that repairing the damage will take between three and five years," the economist stated.
Sapir noted that Egypt and Syria -- through whose territories French President Emmanuel Macron suggested building a gas export pipeline to Europe during the G7 summit -- are facing production hurdles due to depleting reserves or chronic underinvestment in infrastructure. Furthermore, even major producers such as the US and Nigeria are incapable of replacing the market volumes previously exported by Qatar, the economist added.
"Europe cannot do without gas, whether it is LNG or via the TurkStream pipeline. In the short and medium term, European countries will face a severe deficit of this resource. Against this backdrop, it is highly likely that European nations will reconsider their decision to completely phase out Russian gas, as this goal appears entirely unrealistic under the current circumstances. EU member states must face this reality, especially given that European gas inventories are now at their lowest levels," Sapir concluded.
"At present, this is a political issue. The only question is how much the European Union is willing to pay. However, judging by reports in the German press, German industrialists are already pushing to postpone the deadline for halting Russian gas purchases from 2027 to 2029. This indicates that Europe's stance could soften in the coming months," the economist added.
Gas price surge and winter preparations
According to London's ICE futures data and TASS calculations as of July 1, the average natural gas price in Europe for January-June rose 11% year-on-year to approximately $515 per 1,000 cubic meters, driven by the Middle East conflict and the need for early winter storage replenishment. This figure is also 35% higher than that recorded in the second half of last year. In June, Europe scaled back its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to a 10-month low amid fierce competition with Asia for available spot volumes.
In early April, Europe concluded its heating season, which lasted 173 days, making it the second-longest since records began in 2011. Under European Commission mandates, EU member states must ensure their storage facilities are 90% full between October 1 and December 1 each year. This means net injection into European facilities ahead of the 2026-2027 autumn-winter period must reach at least 68 bcm to comply with the regulations. Currently, Europe’s underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are 48.62% full -- 14.64 percentage points below the five-year average for this date -- compared to 58.2% a year earlier, holding 53.2 bcm of gas. Russian gas giant Gazprom projected that gas inventories in European UGS facilities might fail to even reach 70% by the start of the next heating season.
Ban on supplies from Russia
On June 30, EC spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told a briefing in Brussels that the European Commission ruled out the EU's return to Russian gas and was moving forward with a total ban on Russian oil purchases despite the energy crisis. She clarified that the ban on new pipeline gas contracts and short-term deliveries took effect in June, with subsequent restrictions in this sector set to be introduced in January and September 2027.