MOSCOW, August 13. /TASS/. Russia vowed to retaliate against the seizure of its merchant vessels in international waters; Moscow is ready to host US special presidential envoys for a new round of talks on Ukraine; and the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will rise by a quarter compared to the previous year. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Russia, Western countries face risk of escalation in world’s oceans
On August 12, while observing the final day of the Russian Pacific Fleet exercises, President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow will respond to the seizure of its merchant vessels in international waters by unfriendly countries. According to the head of state, this will take place not only in the waters where attacks are planned - similar actions have already been carried out in the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas - but also in areas where Moscow deems it appropriate, including within the Pacific Fleet’s area of responsibility.
Russia, on the basis of reciprocity, may detain, inspect, and confiscate cargo from vessels of unfriendly states, and this will lead to the establishment of a new legal precedent, lawyer and partner at BGP Litigation Sergey Glandin told Vedomosti. Currently, relations on the use of maritime space between countries are governed by both international conventions and common law. The expert noted that Russia has had a foreign policy concept in effect since the end of March 2023, under which Moscow, while not establishing international rules, reserves the right to take symmetrical and asymmetrical actions against unfriendly states.
Russia will take retaliatory measures following new attempts by Western navies to intercept its vessels and confiscate their cargo, Maxim Shepovalenko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted. According to him, the Russian Pacific Fleet can intercept ships from unfriendly states near the Greater Kuril Ridge or in the Sea of Japan. However, the expert emphasized that there must be a clear plan for what to do after taking such a vessel into custody and how to respond to a potential further escalation, the expert emphasized.
In turn, Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov stressed that going after Russian ships in the world’s oceans could lead to serious escalation. According to the political scientist, this could force coastal states to use military convoys to escort merchant ships, further increasing the risk of military escalation. "But such a practice is unlikely to become widespread today, since global maritime cargo traffic is extremely high, and you can’t assign a cruiser to every civilian ship. Nevertheless, such a situation could drastically change the nature of global trade and lead to significant consequences. On the other hand, Russia’s ability to intercept European ships in the Pacific Ocean is limited. The main cargo flow in the region is between China and Europe, so it would be unusual for Moscow to stop ships carrying Chinese goods," the expert pointed out.
Izvestia: Russia ready to discuss US envoys’ proposals on Ukraine
Russia and the US may resume active talks on Ukraine in the near future. Moscow is ready to host US special presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for a new round of talks. The main topic of the potential meeting could be the new proposals that Kiev has presented to Washington. However, the exact dates of the US negotiators’ trip to Russia have not yet been finalized.
Russia is open to any discussions even without this, Grigory Karasin, the head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. "Russia is always ready to discuss matters if the other side has a practical interest in achieving real results. We are always ready for meetings and negotiations. Therefore, this applies to both Kushner and Witkoff. I see no obstacles to holding such a meeting, regardless of what Zelensky proposed or did not propose," the senator emphasized.
At the same time, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington is not limited solely to the Ukrainian settlement, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. According to him, there remains a wide range of issues of mutual interest between the countries, and reciprocal steps by both sides can improve the chances of reaching agreements.
However, the US has not yet confirmed plans for a specific trip. The US Embassy in Russia told Izvestia that so far there is no information about the visit that could be shared.
The main problem remains the disagreement between Moscow and Kiev over the terms for ending hostilities. Russia insists that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the Donbass region before a peace settlement can be reached. Ukraine, on the other hand, proposes first establishing a ceasefire along the current line of engagement and then moving on to further negotiations on the terms of a peace agreement. If Washington can secure tangible concessions from Kiev, then negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner will yield tangible results. For example, Russia and Ukraine could resume direct talks in the territory of a third country. Otherwise, the conflict will continue with no prospects for a diplomatic settlement.
Vedomosti: Analysts expect average oil price to rise by 25% in 2026
The average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will increase by 25% compared to the previous year, reaching $86.1 per barrel, the Kept consulting firm (formerly KPMG’s Russian division), said in a report. The estimate is based on data from the consensus forecast of more than 40 analytical firms, agencies, and investment banks. Experts attribute the updated forecast to the ongoing oil shortage in the global market resulting from the armed conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, leading to lower crude production in Middle Eastern countries.
Kept recalled that the average price of Brent crude decreased by 14% last year, reaching $69.1 per barrel. The average price was $80.5 per barrel in 2024 and $82.5 per barrel in 2023.
The situation in the Middle East will continue to push oil prices higher in the coming months as the parties to the conflict have not yet reached a consensus, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko told Vedomosti. Until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, the price of Brent crude will remain in the range of $80-90 per barrel, Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Asset Management, said.
On August 12, the price of October Brent crude futures was $88.8 per barrel, according to ICE exchange data. Sales of oil from US strategic reserves are keeping prices from rising further, Kirill Bakhtin, head of the Russian stock analytics center BCS World of Investments, explained.
Suverev also noted that the price of raw materials in the coming months will be influenced by the policies of OPEC+ countries and the shipping situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. According to him, a balance between supply and demand in the global oil market could be achieved by the end of 2026. In turn, Dudchenko stressed that the market will remain in deficit this year, and a supply surplus will appear in the first and second quarters of 2027.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Asia taking close look at Russia's Northern Sea Route
Russia is ready to cooperate with other countries on the Northern Sea Route project within the framework of existing international maritime law, President Vladimir Putin stated. China and South Korea have already expressed strong interest in this alternative supply route. However, underdeveloped port infrastructure along the route and the need to find a reliable insurance company to cover the risks remain key challenges.
The list of countries interested in the Northern Sea Route is expanding. This week, China’s Sea Legend Shipping will launch a regular container service from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route, the Global Times noted. South Korea also plans to launch cargo routes along the route. The country will reportedly send its first vessel through it next week. The country views this trip as a strategic move to secure alternative export routes amid instability in the Middle East and the risks of the Suez Canal being closed, Irina Strelnikova, director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Arctic Studies at the National Higher School of Economics, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. In May, South Korea passed a special law that regulates the country’s participation in the development of the Northern Sea Route. According to the expert, the adoption of this law marks South Korea’s transition from private initiatives by individual companies to a systematic state policy aimed at establishing the country as a "leading maritime power of the Northern Sea Route era."
Russia is also actively developing this sector, Ingo Bank Analytics Director Vasily Kutyn pointed out. "The nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet is growing. New, powerful vessels are under construction. Ports are being modernized. Logistics hubs are being established. Integration with rail and road corridors is underway. The long-term goal is to transform the Northern Sea Route into a sustainable international artery. The ‘Greater Northern Sea Route’ concept extends the route’s geography to include ports in the Baltic Sea and the Far East," he emphasized.
However, the issue of cargo insurance remains. "Russia needs to develop its own marine insurance system, including national insurance mechanisms. This is particularly relevant in the context of developing national shipping under the Russian flag. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation with insurers from friendly countries. China, India, Southeast Asian countries, and other states interested in using the Northern Sea Route have their own major insurance companies. Cooperation with them will help reduce risks and create more predictable conditions for international carriers," Alexander Vorotnikov, coordinator of the Expert Council at the Arctic Development Project Office, stressed.
RBC: Potential impact of US’ 'hellish' sanctions on ruble, Russian companies
Late last week, the US Senate approved a bill to tighten American sanctions against Russia and Iran. Introduced on August 10, the bill is currently in the hands of the House of Representatives, which is in recess until August 31. The new version of the bill, titled the "Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026," proposes imposing tariffs of up to 100% on third countries and codifying sanctions against Russian officials and legal entities into law. If adopted, experts believe the sanctions against Russia could affect the oil and gas sector the hardest. They expect the ruble to weaken further toward the end of the year.
According to Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company, if adopted, this package of sanctions will have a long-term impact and affect three key areas: the oil and gas sector, the banking sector, and the shadow fleet. In turn, Alexander Potekhin, a leading analyst at T-Investments, told RBC that the oil and gas sector will suffer the brunt of the negative impact from these sanctions. According to him, restrictions targeting buyers of Russian energy resources and the shadow fleet could lead to an even wider expansion of export discounts and an increase in logistics costs. Meanwhile, Alexander Golovtsov, head of the analytical department at PSB Asset Management, believes the new sanctions will not significantly impact Russian markets because key restrictions targeting Russia’s largest companies and industries were already introduced in previous years.
Some experts are generally skeptical that these sanctions will be backed, passed, and implemented in practice. According to Solid Investments equity market analyst Denis Maslennikov, the US could use this bill as a "trump card" in its talks with Russia. Alor Broker analyst Kirill Vasilyev agreed that the new sanctions package is part of US President Donald Trump’s negotiating strategy to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. He pointed out that the US leader retains broad authority to decide independently when and against whom to impose tariffs, as well as to postpone their implementation.
Nevertheless, Finam Financial Group analyst Alexander Potavin stressed that new US sanctions would put pressure on the ruble. "The main risk for the ruble is possible secondary restrictions against the largest buyers of Russian oil, primarily China and India. If they cut back on purchases or demand a larger discount, export revenue in foreign currency will decline, which will put pressure on the ruble," the expert said.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews