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New anti-Russian sanctions unlikely to affect OPEC+ decision to increase output — experts

If US sanctions lead to a prolonged decline or lack of growth in Russian oil production as part of the OPEC+ plan, the G8 OPEC+ members may consider increasing production with other alliance members, Kirill Bakhtin, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, said

MOSCOW, October 24. /TASS/. New sanctions against Russian oil companies will not influence OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production, said experts interviewed by TASS.

If US sanctions lead to a prolonged decline or lack of growth in Russian oil production as part of the OPEC+ plan, the G8 OPEC+ members may consider increasing production with other alliance members, said Kirill Bakhtin, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments.

"However, we don't consider this a baseline scenario. We believe that if Russian oil producers suffer losses due to US actions, it will be not in terms of volumes, but in terms of the prices of crude oil and petroleum products for export. However, we note that there is limited spare capacity for rapid oil production growth - 3 million bpd - and it is primarily concentrated in four OPEC countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait," the expert added.

As Dmitry Kasatkin, Kasatkin Consulting partner, noted that the new sanctions against Russian companies will not affect the OPEC+ decision, and the initial strategy will not be adjusted, "but alliance members will certainly monitor the situation and will be prepared to take the impact of the restrictions into account in their future steps." He also added that a significant decline in Russian oil exports should not be expected due to the new restrictions.

"We don't expect a dramatic decline in oil exports from Russia. Temporary supply disruptions are possible for several weeks, but supply and production volumes will remain stable in the medium term. Taking this into account, OPEC+ will adhere to its previously defined strategy, subject to regular monitoring of fundamental factors," the expert said.

Earlier, the US imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, and several of their subsidiaries. In turn, the European Union officially approved the 19th sanctions package against Russia, which included sanctions against more than 100 tankers and a number of individuals and entities.

Since the beginning of 2024, the eight leading OPEC+ countries have voluntarily reduced oil production by a combined 2.2 million bpd. From April 2025, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and Kuwait began to gradually bring oil back to the global market. In April, production increased by 138,000 bpd, with 411,000 bpd each month from May to July, 548,000 bpd in August, and 547,000 bpd in September. In October, countries began to abandon their 1.65 million bpd oil production cuts, having agreed to increase production by another 137,000 bpd. The next OPEC+ G8 meeting will be held on November 2.

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