GENEVA, October 7. /TASS/. Experts of the World Trade Organization (WTO) revised upward the forecast of the world merchandise trade volume growth this year from 0.9% to 2.4%, according to the report posted on the organization’s website.
"The volume of world merchandise trade was up 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, growing at a faster rate than expected. Several factors contributed to this robust trade expansion, including frontloading of imports in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs, favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g. disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, strong growth in emerging markets) and a surge in demand for AI-related goods," the WTO said.
"WTO economists’ forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025 has risen to 2.4% (up from the estimate of 0.9% in the interim outlook in August) while the outlook for 2026 has deteriorated to 0.5% (down from the August estimate of 1.8%)," the organization noted.
"Prospects for the second half of 2025 and 2026 are less optimistic. With higher tariffs now in place and trade policy still highly uncertain, frontloading of purchases is expected to unwind as accumulated inventories are drawn down and as GDP growth slows. Possible signs of weakness in trade and manufacturing output have been observed in developed economies, including reduced business and consumer confidence and slower growth in employment and incomes," the WTO experts said. The organization lowered the forecast of the world merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5% from 1.8%.
"The forecast for services trade has also been updated, with commercial services export volume now expected to grow 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up slightly from the previous estimates last April," the WTO added.