MOSCOW, July 3. /TASS/. The European Union is unable to offer Azerbaijan and Armenia opportunities comparable to the benefits of cooperation with Russia, South Caucasus expert David Martirosyan said in an op-ed for TASS.
"What is telling is the logic that Brussels is promoting for Baku and Yerevan as an alternative to a military scenario: the idea is to build transport infrastructure in the hope that the countries will start generating significant revenue from it. However, the profits appear insignificant at present in 2026," the expert pointed out.
According to him, "they are unable to match Azerbaijan’s oil and gas revenues or the benefits Armenia receives from trade with Russia within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)."
Martirosyan noted that the EU’s claims of "billions of euros in profit" from the development of transport routes "do not reflect the current economic reality, but largely serve as a political tool." "Actual transit cargo volumes and investment levels remain low, while regional infrastructure is not yet prepared to handle the volumes that would make it possible to talk about earning significant revenues in the coming years," he stressed.
The analyst observed that total cargo traffic through the Middle Corridor had reached a record 4.7 million metric tons in 2025, with plans to increase this figure to 10 million tons annually by 2027. "However, the World Bank estimates that, for the region to generate billions in transit revenues, annual cargo volumes would need to rise to at least 30-40 million tons. That said, at least 10% of maritime cargo traffic from China to the EU would need to be redirected to this corridor," he explained.
The expert emphasized that "today, Caucasus infrastructure is not physically prepared to handle such a load, while investment in its upgrade remains very limited and does not guarantee cost recovery." "Even if the Zangezur Corridor (the road and rail lines included in the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity project signed in Washington) is launched, the Caspian way will hardly be able to compete with the Northern Corridor through Russia in terms of cost," he said.
Martirosyan added that the required ferry service across the Caspian Sea between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan remained a key bottleneck, as it would keep logistics costs high. "The Zangezur Corridor could improve transport speed and make the route more attractive, it is still most likely to remain a quite costly, ‘luxury,’ route in the foreseeable future, suitable for high-value goods such as electronics and automotive equipment, rather than mass consumer products," the analyst concluded.